Showdown XXXV

I think I got my Roman numerals right!  

So this week is the Showdown and it shapes up as a cracking game again.

Port are clinging onto a top 8 spot and win would put them very close to cementing a place in September.

Adelaide's season is pretty much shot, and the Showdown may be the last chance to salvage something from their season.

Adelaide will welcome back Dangerfield, and Johnston will get his first crack in Crows colours this weekend after displaying fantastic SANFL form.

Port are playing with confidence, with the youngsters injected into the side this year continuing to impress.

Early prediction - I think Port's run and willingness to take risks will see them get over the line in this one, but it will be a close one.

2:50 Sunday....it's like they don't want me to drink and watch the footy. (After a 12:40 Sunday game)  

Will be an interesting clash Ginge. As always, it starts in the midfield so lets take a look there.

Lobbe v Jacobs - Well in 2012 Jacobs gave Lobbe a bath, winning some 60 off hitouts and Port learnt from that in the first Showdown of 2013 by bringing in Renouf to help batter Jacobs from pillar to post and it certainly curtailed his influence. Jacobs has looked tired for most of 2013 and although he has had a slight pick up in form over the last month he still seems to be doing the bulk of the ruckwork on his own. With Jenkins out and McKernan doubtful Adelaide may look to an untried ruckman to back Jacobs up this week. Either way with Lobbe in good form and Westhoff backing him up, you would back Port to get the better of this contest. Lobbe has begun to have more of an influence around the ground and had kicked 3 goals in 4 weeks. That hurts the opposition ruckman. Port 1-0

Dangerfield/Sloane/Thompson/Douglas/van Berlo/Vince V Boak/Ebert/Moore/Cornes/Hartlett/Wines - An interesting tussle this one with the obvious being Dangerfield coming back in after two weeks out injured and Thompson reportedly carrying some groin soreness.

Boak and Ebert have been in great form the last month and Moore is developing the defensive side of his game nicely to compliment his ball use, watch him closely, he just seems to find room to operate and makes good decisions. I think Port will groom him to replace Cornes as our premier run with player.

Sloane has been given extra responsibility over the last few weeks and has flourished (surely any talk surrounding trading him is codswallop?) by winning more outside ball and running from behind the contest. I think Cornes goes to him.

I think van Berlo will go to Ebert with Ebert earning Raines' attention from Brisbane yesterday, this let Hartlett off the leash and he had an impact so Adelaide may look at trying to shut Hartlett out again.

With Wingard and Broadbent as back up I think Port have sound back up behind the main group Vs Crouch and MacKay.

Port's midfield is hitting the scoreboard which Adelaide's isn't.

Dangerfield has no "natural" match up so I think Port may look at Boak going head to head with him and back Boak to win enough of the ball to break even. Dangerfield may also spend some time forward to try and mismatch the Port defence and he may still not be 100% so getting him out of the contests around the ball might be on Adelaides agenda.

Vince and Moore to battle it out, Wines to muscle up against Thompson, van Berlo to Ebert, Cornes to Sloane, Boak v Dangerfield and Douglas to pair up with Hartlett.

Could go either way this midfield duel but form suggests Port should come out on top, just.

I'll look at the bookends shortly.

Good analysis Booney. Looking forward to your thoughts on the forward and defensive lines of both teams.

Ports forward half :

Schulz/Butcher/Wingard/Westhoff/Monfries/Gray ( Boak, Hartlett, Ebert ) Vs Otten/Talia/Rutten-Hartigan/Smith/Brown ( Laird, Smith, Tambling ) -

Schulz is playing a role further up the field at the moment leaving Butcher closer to goal. Although Butch hasn't hit the scoreboard hard he has been getting his 2-3 and giving us a marking target for the likes of Wingard, Monfries and Gray to be at the feet of. Adelaides biggest threat to the scoreboard, I think, is Port's smalls and mids as Talia and Rutten continue to be miserly in defence. Wingard just keeps getting 20 touches and two goals, Monfries scores "out the back" regularly and Gray is close to looking like a player ready to take a game on. I think this is where Adelaide, other than Smith and Brown dont have a match up for all of Ports small forwards and mids coming down.

I like Luke Brown, he is tight and dependable. No doubt he works with Rutten at training. I think Talia will have to go to Schulz as Otten and Rutten wont cover the ground like Schulz, or if they do they'll drop off him and hope the mids can impact upon his effectiveness up on the wings or Hartigan if kept in the side to chase Schulz around. Rutten takes Butcher and Westhoff will probably get Otten. I like Ports chances if Westhoff/Otten and Schulz/Talia are the match ups. I think Otten might just lack the leg speed to go with either of Ports forwards. They might keep Hartigan in and leave Tambling out for this one to give them the extra tall and maybe send Otten forward again?

Port again just have the advantage here.

( Please, dont tell me if I'm being based )

Lynch/Henderson/Porplyzia/Smith/Johnston (Dangerfield, Thompson ) Vs Trengove/Carlile/Broadbent/Pittard/OShea ( Cassisi, Colquhoun )-

This I think is where Adelaide have the best chance of matching it with or out beating Port but, the issue will be with getting it in there with any system.

Trengove will go to Johnston, OShea to Henderson giving Pittard the chance to be third man up or follow Lynch up the ground. That will give Carlile the chance to stay at home and be the big body to get around. Like Schulz, Lynch is doing alot of work up the ground and those forwards prove hard to match up on. I think Pittard will chase Lynch outside the 50 and Carlile take him inside the 50 much like Schulz/Talia at the other end.

The next bit is a worry for Adelaide, the smalls. Porplyzia is still quiet, Petrenko may be back(?) and Smith plays a slightly negating half back role, he needs to play as a forward I think, he has the potential to hit the scoreboard hard. Johnston is the interesting IN (?) for Adelaide, you think he must simply come into the side and play close to goal. Trengove will take Johnston as he will most likely play inside the 50 with Lynch and Henderson up the ground.

My biggest concern is Dangerfield going forward but in doing that he is out of the midfield which would be a good thing for Port.

Pretty even here and hard to split.

I'll wrap it up again later in the week as the selected teams are finalised and disuss match ups more closely then.

At this point, I think most would say all things point to a second Showdown win for Port in 2013. The last ever at Footy Park.

Quality stuff, Booney. I think Laird is another good match-up for Port's smalls.

Adelaide are a funny team. There's often a lot of activity for not much scoreboard pressure, yet at times they can look dominant.

I've left a few of both sides without much of a mention. I dont think the influence of any of these players will decide the game.

Laird, Tambling, Wright and Lyons for Adelaide.

Cassisi, Colquhoun, Paul Stewart and Mitchell for Port.

Perhaps Laird as a small defender and Wright through the mids with Cassisi as another run with and Stewart playing as the lose man in defence being the ones to have the most of an impact.

Didn't see much of Dom Cassisi against Brisbane. How did he go?

(self-interest here. of course)

i'll go out on a limb & say

Adelaide 9.16.70

Port 10.10.70

yep, i'll tip a DRAW

(i don't know whose home game it is so i went in alphabetical order)

redandblack wrote:Didn't see much of Dom Cassisi against Brisbane.  How did he go?

(self-interest here. of course)

Got through 3/4 and was subbed out at 3/4 time. He was ok without having too much of an impact. I think they would just have been wanting him to get through the best part of a full game and see how he pulled up.

You wont see him again this year. 

I have just 2 things to say about this game:

1) It's OUR turn to win.  
2) Go Crows !!!

Sloane out  

Okay - it's all yours Booney

Oh no, Sloane out? That really puts a twist on things then, doesn't it....

 

Torn retina? FFS.

When you're having a bad run, you're having a bad run.  

Oh well, get it all out the way this year please so we can start 2014 with a clean slate!

Booney wrote:Oh no, Sloane out? That really puts a twist on things then, doesn't it....

 

Calm down  

Gingernuts wrote:Torn retina? FFS.

When you're having a bad run, you're having a bad run.  

Oh well, get it all out the way this year please so we can start 2014 with a clean slate!

I agree - get it all out the way now and bring on 2014...lol

Final line-ups are in and as expected Adelaide bring in Johnston to cover the loss of Jenkins, Dangerfield in for Sloane and Kerridge is earmarked for a run with role on Wingard.

What 19 year old second year player has a team bring in a specific player to run with him? Chad Wingard, Port's new Chad. That's right....we have another Chad. (I know how you all love a Chad)

I think Dangerfield will spend a fair bit of time forward to give Port an additional head ache up forward, sure his midfield drive will be lost but I can see him playing alongside Johnston for much of the game. He is Adelaides biggest weapon.

Likewise Port will be looking to the skipper Boak to continue his strong form and will also be wanting him to again hit the scoreboard. Will be interesting to see who of these two has the biggest scoreboard impact as in a close game it might just be a goal or two (or three) from a midfielder that is the difference.

I still think Adelaide will have trouble getting forward of centre with any system as Ports midfield press has proven very difficult to break through in the last 6 weeks.

Schulz, Westhoff and Butcher pose a threat to Talia (his 50th Sunday, seems to have been around longer than that!) Rutten and Hartigan. I think Port have a real edge there with three mobile big men up forward.

The conditions will be ok at Footy Park Sunday, wont be perfect but should be good enough to see a real tough hit out in the last Showdown at Footy Park.

Im tipping Port by 32 points.

Come on you Power!!!!!

Adelaide by 7 points, can't wait to see the power faces when their finals chances are snatched away!!!  

bigclock wrote:Adelaide by 7 points, can't wait to see the power faces when their finals chances are snatched away!!!  

 Nope, Carlton have Fremantle this week so when Port win we will be two games clear of them.

I'm surprisingly confident of our chances in this game.

I think Adelaide have been playing reasonable footy the last few weeks, certainly in the defence and midfield.

My main concern centres around Adelaide's ball use going forward, Port will hurt us on the rebound from half back (as have many, many teams this year).

It's tough because you don't want to bomb it in, but you don't want fart around with it until you turn it over either - both will hurt you equally.

Adelaide must contain Broadbent and Pittards run from the back half and keep Harlett quiet if possible.

Hammer is running into some form now that Boak and Ebert are getting more attention.

Who do you think VB will go to Ginge?

Not sure TBH Booney. Port have a really good even spread of contributors through the middle at the moment.

Roo was suggesting last night on the radio that perhaps Adelaide will bring in Kerridge and use him as a second run with option. I like this idea, particularly as I think Kerridge can also make an attacking contribution as well (moreso that Van Berlo IMO).

Boak, Ebert, Wines, Hartlett, Wingard, Broadbent, Cornes, Moore, Monfries and Gray.

It does read well. ( For now and the future )

Booney wrote:

bigclock wrote:Adelaide by 7 points, can't wait to see the power faces when their finals chances are snatched away!!!  

 Nope, Carlton have Fremantle this week so when Port win we will be two games clear of them.

So you think losing this week will not effect you finals chances?

I think what's tough about that list (from an opposition perspective) is that there is no stand out week to week match winner (at this point in time) to send your best tagger too.

They are all at a similar standard, and while none of them smash out 3 vote performances every week in the Ablett/Dangerfield/Pendelbury/Watson style, they can all can hurt you if you're give them too much leeway - and how do you predict which one it will be from week to week?

bigclock wrote:

Booney wrote:

bigclock wrote:Adelaide by 7 points, can't wait to see the power faces when their finals chances are snatched away!!!  

 Nope, Carlton have Fremantle this week so when Port win we will be two games clear of them.

So you think losing this week will not effect you finals chances?

I dont forsee a loss this week. The rest of your comments are therefore irrelevant.