R2 - SHOWDOWN!!!

Early thread opening, but let's do this.

I'm calling this the biggest Showdown since Showdown I. The buildup has been epic already:
- Last year's double choke by Adelaide
- Jumpergate
- First game at AO

Port coming in on the back of an impressive victory over Carlton. Adelaide off of a tough away clash at Cat park in which there were positive signs, but still with a bit to work on.

Post away ladies and gents.

Good news this morning with Richard Douglas pushing for selection this week after a quicker than expected recovery from his groin injury. Definitely missed him out the middle against the Cats last week.

Port comfortably but i hope it is a draw

This could go either way, however I feel that the Crows will finish on top by 11 to 16 points.

Should be a great spectacle on the tele.

Well,

Early thoughts on this game are:
- Port deserve to go in favourites. The displayed excellent signs in their win over Carlton and suggested that they will be picking up where they left off last season.

- Adelaide are still an unknown quantity this year. Individual players looked sharp, some looking much improved on last year. Overall though they served up the same recipe that appeared so many times last year - good to great for 3 quarters, falling over in the last. That said, it was the Cats at Cat park and not too many teams have got the chocolates out there in recent years. So in short, still more questions than answers around the Crows at this point in time.

Port by 58

I would have tipped Port to win regardless, but I think the extra break helps them even more. Both teams boast stars but the gap between each clubs best and worst appears to favour the Power. Also think they will run the Crows off their legs at times. Power by 19 points.

sapaul wrote:Port by 58

Do you really think we're that bad this year sapaul? You tipped Adelaide to lose by a fair margin last week too. Any reasons why you think they are so far off the pace?

My early prediction is Port to win and I think win comfortably. 34 points.

Why?

- Adelaide seemed to be capable of entering the forward 50 against Geelong, but not able to really use it effectively when the ball was there. Podsiadly will be covered by the best defender in most sides much more easily in Adelaides current line up. Previously having Hawkins and at times Harry Taylor to foil him and take away tall defenders made his job easier. Mind you I have always seen Podsiadly as a bit of a flat track bully and his record shows more goals against bottom 4 sides than top 4 sides. McKernan seemed to be giving it his all, but I think he simply is not up to being a key forward. Having said all of that, a forward half missing Tippett and Walker from 2012 is most certainly going to be less effective.

From this Port's defence should have the opportunity to rebound quickly and attack, currently one of Ports strengths. The likes of Pittard, White, Impey and Hartlett will relish the chance to run from the back half into the score assist zone 70-90m from goal.

I'll add more as it comes to mind.

Gingernuts wrote:Do you really think we're that bad this year sapaul? You tipped Adelaide to lose by a fair margin last week too. Any reasons why you think they are so far off the pace?

Same margin as I predicted last week, moreso that Port/Geelong are that much better than us being that bad.

edit: Westhoff will rip us apart.

Not having a go, but if we're nearly 60 points behind Geelong and Port, then you're basically suggesting we're a 9 - 12th side (at best).

Personally I think we're better than that.

On the predictions thread I said we'd be similar to last year. We finished 11th didn't we? Time will tell I guess.

Gingernuts wrote:Not having a go, but if we're nearly 60 points behind Geelong and Port, then you're basically suggesting we're a 9 - 12th side (at best).

Personally I think we're better than that.

I think the overall rating you have listed is accurate. Think the only hope the Crows have of exceeding that is to receive a nice run with injury (which hasn't started so well) and for the fringe/3rd tier of player to really step up.

The likes of Jaensch (good start against Geelong), Lyons, McKernon, Podsiadly (tend to agree with Booneys assessment), Wright, Laird, Martin etc. really need to become automatic selections based on form, for it to have any chance of happening.

Also looks to me as though Thompson and Porplyzia are fading fast.

My next point :

Ports key attacking options of Schulz and Westhoff will be covered by Rutten and Talia with the exception of Schulz dragging Rutten up the ground, Talia would then go to Schulz and Rutten to Westhoff. Port will this week give Rutten the run around and expose his pace, not strength or how he reads the ball, but pace.

Monfries and Gray also pose Adelaide some serious questions.

Midfields - I think the midfields are very evenly matched, perhaps Adelaide has the edge "inside" with Dangerfield, Sloane and Thompson (geez, some have written him off quick!) but Port have the scoreboard edge. Ports midfield hit the scoreboard more than Adelaides with Boak, Ebert, Hartlett, etc all damaging in front of goal. I expect the winning edge to be in Ports favour here. Midfield scores.

Have to agree with Michael Malthouse who on radio tonight, basically said he can't see Port not kicking 13-16 goals at a minimum. So his opinion for the Crows to have a chance is to engage in a shootout and just hope they can score more. A theory I think worth trying as the Crows strengths do appear to be in the middle and up the front moreso than down back and I suspect Port's most vulerable component might be the back half. Of course, it also might not be, but perhaps worth trying to find out?

The continuing problem for Adelaide is the sheer amount of goals they give away every week from turn overs. Last year it was ridiculous, and it was evident again last week. Was it something like 8 goals? Clean hands and clean disposal really does go a long way.

Scrunch wrote:Have to agree with Michael Malthouse who on radio tonight, basically said he can't see Port not kicking 13-16 goals at a minimum. So his opinion for the Crows to have a chance is to engage in a shootout and just hope they can score more. A theory I think worth trying as the Crows strengths do appear to be in the middle and up the front moreso than down back and I suspect Port's most vulerable component might be the back half. Of course, it also might not be, but perhaps worth trying to find out?

Ports back half can potentially be exposed by the best tall forward combinations in the game. Think Darling and Kennedy, Tippett and Franklin, Roughead and Gunston. I don't think at this point Podsiadly and McKernan/Jenkins offer quite as much of a headache.

On the smalls, Porps seems lost and Betts will do his share.

Ginge, is it time to start analysing Sandersons plan for the forward half more as opposed to just thinking it's the players not executing?

I don't think so Booney. I actually thought our forward line looked quite sharp last week when the ball entered with some sort of system/intent. Johnston looked excellent when given a good chance at the cherry, and Betts was lurking in the right places a few times. Kerridge was one of the few that was particularly good with his forward 50 entries.

However, a fumble here, a misdirected handpass there, and all of a sudden what was shaping up as a geniune push forward becomes an easy goal over the back at the other end. It happened countless times last year, and several times just last week. I think that's where our main problem is IMO.

Psychologically those sorts of goals are like a punch to the bread basket too. So often the team is pushing hard or has taken the best part of a quarter to get back into the game, or build a solid lead, and then bang bang, a couple of stupid errors undo all that hard work.

What would have happened if the Stones concert went ahead and the staging and ground structures damaged the lawn surface and it could not be repaired in time?

Well the staging that was constructed did damage the lawn and was able to be repaired.

But the possibility of much more extensive damage with the full set-up was a very real one.

I think the sanfl have dodged a bullet.

Well although I expect Port will probably win this match I think the round 1 performances were not as far apart as they looked. Geelong are a much harder opponent at this stage and the pace of the crows game was a lot more frenetic than the port/Carlton game. Yes it was a very disappointing last 1/4 but I don't think that we're at panic stations yet. For the crows to win we need someone to kick 5 goals and midfield conversion as well.

I have my fingers crossed for a better showing this week from the crows and will be yelling very loudly at my tv in an attempt to get them over the line. (Because it makes a difference!!)   

Chambo Off To Work We Go wrote:What would have happened if the Stones concert went ahead and the staging and ground structures damaged the lawn surface and it could not be repaired in time?

Well the staging that was constructed did damage the lawn and was able to be repaired.

But the possibility of much more extensive damage with the full set-up was a very real one.

I think the sanfl have dodged a bullet.

I agree, the SMA might have bitten off more than they could chew with the Stones concert so close to the opening match.

Some handy experience coming back in for Adelaide, Douglas and Reilly both tidy inclusions. Both will add some much needed composure to the team.

If, in horse racing parlance, you were "franking the form" of Port Adelaide, last nights showing by Carlton might just edge Adelaides form in their loss to Geelong ahead of Ports form in winning over Carlton.

Although last week is last week and I still have Port just as favourite. My betting would be Port $1.85 and Adelaide $1.95

My line would be set at 9.5 points.

Booney wrote:

Chambo Off To Work We Go wrote:What would have happened if the Stones concert went ahead and the staging and ground structures damaged the lawn surface and it could not be repaired in time?

Well the staging that was constructed did damage the lawn and was able to be repaired.

But the possibility of much more extensive damage with the full set-up was a very real one.

I think the sanfl have dodged a bullet.

I agree, the SMA might have bitten off more than they could chew with the Stones concert so close to the opening match.

The surface is like carpet and the forecast is for 28 degrees.
If 30 goals minimum aren't scored there is something wrong.

Booney wrote:If, in horse racing parlance, you were "franking the form" of Port Adelaide, last nights showing by Carlton might just edge Adelaides form in their loss to Geelong ahead of Ports form in winning over Carlton.

Although last week is last week and I still have Port just as favourite. My betting would be Port $1.85 and Adelaide $1.95

My line would be set at 9.5 points.

I was thinking similar last night actually.

I would still have Port as favourite - but after last night's game and the addition of 300+ games of experience coming into the Adelaide side with Douglas and Reilly, I am far more optimistic today than I was on Monday.

This game is going to be a fair dinkum belter I reckon.