2012 Magarey Medal Preview

By Chris Kendall (courtesy Sportsbeat Magazine):

The SANFL’s night of nights, the 2012 Magarey Medal, on Tuesday September 18, looks set to be a fantastic count. A number of contenders across the clubs, and with no one player dominating the competition this year, it looks set for one of the tightest finishes in recent times.

Unfortunately, according to my count, it looks like we may have two players near the top of the leaderboard that will have the dreaded asterisk next to their name, indicating they are ineligible to win. Central District’s James Boyd; North Adelaide’s James Bennett and to a lesser extent, Woodville/West Torrens’s Byron Sumner all look set to poll strongly but will not be able to take home the Magarey after indiscretions during the season. On my reckoning, Boyd will be leading the count at the end of round 21, but his round 22 suspension will take him out of calculations.

For each of the top players, I will list my projected votes for them in matches where they look likely to poll, as well as the statistical breakdown of their match and whether their team won or lost.

Of the top fancies for the clubs, however, I’ve worked my round-by-round projected votes from covering the season through my role as Boundary Rider and commentary with ABC-TV, as well as commentator for 5RPH, and SANFL writer for Sportsbeat magazine. Combined with indepth analysis of match replays and statistics, here is how I think the night will transpire for many of the top fancies:


CENTRAL DISTRICT:

Brad Symes – Playing nearly the entire season at Central, the Crows listed utility has been noticed previously by the umpires, finishing equal second in 2007. His season started strongly he could be in double figure votes by Round 9. A lengthy flat patch from round 17 to 21 may hurt his chances, however.

PROJECTIONS:
Round 2: (20 pt loss to NWD. 31 disp,1 free for (F/F), 4 tackles, 7 clearances): 2 votes
Rnd 4: (42 pt win v SA. 34 disp, 2 F/F, 5 clear): 3 votes
Rnd 6: (6 pt win v W/WT. 24 disp, 1 F/F, 3 tack, 3 clear): 1
Rnd 8: (75 pt win v Gl. 38 disp, 3 F/F, 3 tack, 2 clear, 1 goal): 2
Rnd 9: (6pt win v NA. 30 disp, 3 F/F, 7 tack, 9 clear): 2
Rnd 11: (37 pt win v WA. 28 disp, 15 marks, 3 clear, 1 goal): 3
Rnd 12: (15 pt win v PA. 29 disp, 6 tack, 3 clear): 2
Rnd 16: (79 pt win v ST. 35 disp, 10 marks, 5 tack, 3 clear): 2
Rnd 22: (45 pt win v ST. 30 disp, 2 tack, 6 clear): 2

PROJECTED TOTAL: 19 votes

GLENELG:

Jarryd Lyons – The Crows listed player could be one of the surprise packets of the count, in a season that was otherwise disappointing for the Tigers. Not likely to lose high numbers to teammates, some of his matches were so dominant that it is difficult to see the umpires missing his dashes through the middle. Won’t win it, but his tally will be interesting.

PROJECTIONS:
Round 3: (56 pt win v NA. 30 disp, 1 F/F, 13 clear, 2 goals): 3 votes
Rnd 4: (32 pt win v WWT. 23 disp, 2 F/F, 3 tack, 8 clear, 1 goal): 2
Rnd 5: (27pt loss v SA. 25 disp, 4 tack, 2 clear): 1
Rnd 9: (18 pt win v PA. 29 disp, 11 clear): 3
Rnd 18: (34 pt loss v CD. 25 disp, 3 tack, 7 clear): 1
Rnd 21: (5 pt win v ST. 32 disp, 7 clear, 1 goal): 3
Rnd 23: (8 pt loss v NWD. 26 disp, 9 clear): 2

PROJECTED TOTAL: 15 votes

NORTH ADELAIDE:

James Allan – His polling history is undoubted. The triple Medallist has picked up votes in heavy losses in the past and when North wins with him in the team, his name invariably bobs up in post-match discussion. The five week absence through a knee injury may prove critical to his chances, as his form before that was more than comparable to past seasons. Whether the umpires are as kind to him as past years will be a point of note throughout, but I have finishing very close:

PROJECTIONS:
Round 2: (15 pt loss v SA. 35 disp, 3 F/F, 13 clear): 2 votes
Rnd 5: (79 pt win v W/WT. 44 disp, 2 F/F, 13 clear): 2
Rnd 6: (39 pt loss v NWD. 32 disp, 3 tack): 1
Rnd 7: (12 pt win v ST. 37 disp, 3 F/F, 12 clear): 3
Rnd 8: (10 pt loss v PA. 34 disp, 2 F/F, 9 clear): 2
Rnd 10: (27 pt win v NA. 36 disp, 3 tack, 15 clear): 3
Rnd 11: (1pt win v NWD. 37 disp, 5 F/F, 5 clear): 3
Rnd 16: (45 pt loss v PA. 27 disp, 3 F/F, 6 clear): 1
Rnd 17: (6pt win v SA. 38 disp, 11 clear, 1 goal): 3

PROJECTED TOTAL: 20 votes


NORWOOD:

Nathan Batsanis – In his second stint in SANFL, the Redleg on-baller has caught the eye of many observers as well as the media, but history may be against him. He only polled two votes in 2007 for Woodville/West Torrens and despite playing in an undefeated Port Melbourne last season, only received votes once from the umpires in the 2011 Liston Medal. The real intangible, therefore, is if the umpires notice him as much as the media and fans did, so calculating his tally assumes that the men in white pay him the same attention. In such a dominant season for Norwood, however, it’s fair to assume that a number of Redlegs will poll.

PROJECTIONS:
Round 2: (20 pt win v CD. 33 disp, 3 tack, 9 clear): 3 votes
Rnd 4: (41 pt win v PA. 24 disp, 3 tack, 3 clear): 3
Rnd 7: (53 pt win v GL. 24 disp, 5 tack, 7 clear, 1 goal): 2
Rnd 12: (89 pt win v GL. 30 disp, 2 tack, 5 clear, 1 goal): 3
Rnd 13: (1pt win v WA. 25 disp, 3 F/F, 5 clear, 1 goal): 1
Rnd 16: (12 pt win v WWT. 25 disp, 1 clear): 2
Rnd 19: (121 pt win v ST. 22 disp, 7 clear, 1 goal): 2
Rnd 21: (23 pt loss to WA. 27 disp, 2 F/F, 5 tack, 5 clear, 1 goal): 2

PROJECTED TOTAL: 18 votes

Jaryd Cachia – A ball magnet recruited from Carlton, his work in the contested situations is the type of thing umpires love, but like Batsanis, they missed him in the Liston last season in the VFL, failing to poll a vote. He had a rich vein of form from rounds 8 to 13 however, where I project him polling five times. If he can be noted for a couple of big games and teammates miss notice, Cachia may be the real smoky of the count.

PROJECTIONS:
Round 3: (93 pt win v WWT. 26 disp, 3 tack, 3 clear): 2 votes
Rnd 8: (47 pt win v WA. 24 disp, 4 tack, 4 clear): 2
Rnd 10: (25 pt win v SA. 22 disp, 5 tack, 2 clear): 3
Rnd 11: (1pt loss v NA. 30 disp, 4 clear): 1
Rnd 12: (89 pt win v GL. 20 disp, 2 F/F, 3 tack, 4 clear): 1
Rnd 13: (1 pt win v WA. 23 disp, 3 clear): 2
Rnd 16: (12 pt win v WWT. 21 disp, 7 tack, 2 clear, 1 goal): 1
Rnd 18: (37 pt win PA. 22 disp, 3 tack, 3 clear): 2
Rnd 22: (21 pt win v WWT. 21 disp, 15 tack, 9 clear): 3

PROJECTED TOTAL: 17 votes


PORT ADELAIDE:

Jeremy Clayton – The Magpies had a season of some big wins mixed with heavy losses, but Clayton wound the clock right back at times to his stellar best. Starting with a clear BOG in round 1 against the Eagles, he bobs up at times during the season with some strong games that should see his name feature along the way. Quite whether the umpires notice teammate Aseri Raikiwasa will be an intangible, as he has no polling history, but he could also fall under notice. Clayton is highly unlikely to win, but should bow out of SANFL with a double figure tally.

PROJECTIONS:
Round 1: (55 pt v WWT. 25 disp, 11 marks, 4 F/F, 2 tack, 2 goals): 3 votes
Rnd 7: (35 pt loss v WA. 30 disp, 5 F/F, 4 tack, 7 clear): 2
Rnd 12: (15 pt loss v CD. 25 disp, 5 tack, 6 clear, 1 goal): 2
Rnd 17: (59 win v CD. 26 disp, 2 F/F, 3 tack, 5 clear, 1 goal): 1
Rnd 20: (30 pt v GL. 27 disp, 2 F/F, 9 clear, 1 goal): 3
Rnd 24: (31 pt loss v ST. 26 disp, 3 F/F, 7 clear): 1

PROJECTED TOTAL: 12 votes

SOUTH ADELAIDE:

Joel Cross – Many had Cross high up among the 2011 contenders, but surprisingly, he only polled seven votes. Whether this was a case of “First Year Syndrome” will be interesting to assess in 2012. Many of his matches this year were so dominant that it’s hard to see the umpires missing his impact, but against him is that South only won seven matches, and last year’s runner up, teammate Nick Liddle will steal some votes. On the upside, seven of South’s losses were by 25 points or less, with the Panthers still leading late in the game, so his impact should be noted. Big threat.

PROJECTIONS:
Round 2 (15 pt win v NA. 22 disp, 5 F/F, 7 tack, 6 clear, 1 goal): 1 vote
Rnd 3 (13 pt loss v ST: 19 disp, 2 F/F, 9 clear, 1 goal): 1
Rnd 4: (44 pt loss v CD. 34 disp, 6 tack, 10 clear, 1 goal): 2
Rnd 5: (27 pt win v GL. 24 disp, 3 F/F, 3 tack, 6 clear, 1 goal): 2
Rnd 6: (20 pt win v PA. 23 disp, 3 F/F, 4 tack, 8 clear, 1 goal): 1
Rnd 10: (25 pt loss v NWD. 24 disp, 6 tack, 8 clear): 1
Rnd 11: (41 pt win v PA. 28 disp, 5 clear, 1 goal): 1
Rnd 12: (39 pt win v ST. 30 disp, 4 tack, 2 clear): 2
Rnd 15: (19 pt win v WWT. 23 disp, 6 tack, 6 clear): 2
Rnd 18: (6 pt loss v ST. 38 disp, 3 F/F, 3 tack, 10 clear, 1 goal): 3
Rnd 22: (1 pt loss v WA. 31 disp, 5 F/F, 3 tack, 8 clear): 1
Rnd 23: (19 pt win NA. 37 disp, 4 F/F, 5 tack, 14 clear): 3
Rnd 24: (17 pt win v GL. 30 disp, 7 tack, 5 clear): 3

PROJECTED TOTAL: 23 votes


Nick Liddle – Surprised many with his barnstorming 2011 count, when he beat all but James Allan, and the statistics support him polling well again this season. Started with a ripping opening seven weeks, but may find a drought until round 15 on the voting slips, when many had him best afield against the Eagles. Finishes well enough to suggest that he will be right in it again at the business end of the count.


PROJECTIONS:
Round 1 (38 pt loss v WA. 27 disp, 2 F/F, 12 clear, 1 goal): 2 votes
Rnd 3: (13 pt loss v ST. 24 disp, 2 F/F, 13 clear): 2
Rnd 5: (27 pt win v Gl. 30 disp, 2 F/F, 9 clear, 1 goal): 3
Rnd 6: (20 pt win v PA. 28 disp, 3 tack, 9 clear, 2 goals): 3
Rnd 7: (26 pt loss v WWT. 30 disp, 4 tack, 8 clear): 2
Rnd 15: (19 pt win v WWT. 23 disp, 3 tack, 7 clear, 1 goal): 3
Rnd 18: (6 pt loss v ST. 33 disp, 3 F/F, 4 tack, 10 clear, 1 goal): 2
Rnd 20: (39 pt loss v NWD. 28 disp, 5 F/F, 8 clear, 2 goals): 2
Rnd 21: (49 pt loss v CD. 26 disp, 2 tack, 6 clear): 1

PROJECTED TOTAL: 20 votes


STURT:

Aidan Riley – Really difficult to see any Double Blues troubling on the night, but some of Riley’s matches will be nearly impossible to ignore. The trouble with other Blues players is many of their best games were in big losses, so they are unlikely to poll. Riley’s best games were in games that can feature polling.

PROJECTIONS:
Round 10: (31 pt win v CD. 20 disp, 4 tack, 11 clear): 3 votes
Rnd 12: (39 pt loss v SA. 23 disp, 8 tack, 10 clear): 1
Rnd 13: (63 pt win v NA. 20 disp, 10 marks, 4 tack, 3 goals): 3
Rnd 18: (6 pt win v SA. 26 disp, 2 tack, 13 clear): 1
Rnd 21: (5 pt loss v GL. 22 disp, 4 tack, 5 clear, 1 goal): 1

PROJECTED TOTAL: 9 votes


WEST ADELAIDE:

Chris Schmidt: - The rise of the Bloods up the ladder was congruent with Schmidt’s full time return to the club after his AFL career ended. Some of his mid-season games were brilliant, and a projected run of votes in nine of the matches from Round 7 to 17 will be crucial to his chances. Will catch the eye through the middle and with West having some strong wins in this period, he looks likely to be noted at the end of the game. A slowish start may prove costly, along with the shoulder injury that ended his season in Round 22, but may have enough in the bank by this point. Major chance.

PROJECTIONS:
Round 3 (16 pt win v CD. 24 disp, 3 tack, 8 clear): 3 votes
Rnd 5: (21 pt win v ST. 23 disp, 5 tack, 4 clear): 1
Rnd 7: (35 pt win v PA. 20 disp, 3 clear): 2
Rnd 9: (48 pt win v SA. 24 disp, 4 tack, 6 clear): 3
Rnd 10: (19 pt win v WWT. 22 disp, 3 tack, 3 clear): 1
Rnd 11: (37 pt loss v CD. 31 disp, 2 FF, 4 tack, 7 clear): 1
Rnd 13: (1pt loss v NWD. 24 disp, 2 tack, 9 clear): 3
Rnd 14: (17pt win v PA. 22 disp, 7 tack, 5 clear): 2
Rnd 15: (68 pt win v ST. 26 clear, 5 clear): 2
Rnd 17: (20 pt win v GL. 32 disp, 4 tack, 6 clear, 1 goal): 2
Rnd 20: (31 pt win v CD. 29 disp, 5 tack, 10 clear): 3

PROJECTED TOTAL: 23 votes


Shane Birss – Starts very slowly, and may only have three votes on the board by round 20, but his closing five weeks were spectacular. If he can pick up some other votes earlier than this, then he may be a surprise blowout chance.

PROJECTIONS:
Round 7: (35 pt win v PA. 27 disp, 2 FF, 3 tack, 1 goal): 3 votes
Rnd 20: (31 pt win v CD. 22 disp, 7 marks): 2
Rnd 21: (23 pt win v NWD. 28 disp, 2 clear, 1 goal): 2
Rnd 22: (1pt win v SA. 29 disp, 2 F/F, 2 clear): 3
Rnd 24: (16 pt loss v WWT. 40 disp, 14 marks): 2

PROJECTED TOTAL: 12 votes


WOODVILLE/WEST TORRENS:

Angus Rowntree – No Eagle has won the Magarey Medal, and this won’t change this season. They simply won too few games early for anyone to make a real charge, but Rowntree had arguably his best season to date and should be rewarded with a double figure tally. Will lose votes to Luke Powell and Chris Knights, but should still poll well.

PROJECTIONS:
Round 7: (26 pt win v SA. 27 disp, 5 F/F, 5 tack, 8 clear): 3 votes
Rnd 8: (9 pt win v ST. 20 disp, 3 F/F, 6 tack, 8 clear): 2
Rnd 12 :(45 pt win v NA. 24 disp, 5 F/F, 5 clear) : 2
Rnd 13: (33 pt win v WWT. 28 disp, 5 tack, 8 clear): 2
Rnd 15: (19 pt loss v SA. 24 disp, 4 F/F, 9 tack, 7 clear): 1
Rnd 21: (3 pt win v PA. 27 disp, 4 F/F, 7 clear, 1 goal) 2

PROJECTED TOTAL: 12 votes

SELECTED INELIGIBLE PLAYERS:

CENTRAL DISTRICT: James Boyd:

PROJECTIONS:

Round 8: 3 votes
Rnd 9: 3
Rnd 10: 1
Rnd 12: 3
Rnd 14: 3
Rnd 15: 1
Rnd 16: 3
Rnd 18: 1
Rnd 20: 1
Rnd 21: 3

PROJECTED TOTAL: 22 votes

NORTH ADELAIDE: James Bennett:
PROJECTIONS:

Round 4: 2
Round 5: 1
Rnd 7: 2
Rnd 8: 1
Rnd 10: 2
Rnd 11: 2
Rnd 12: 2
Rnd 18: 2
Rnd 19: 2
Rnd 22: 3
PROJECTED TOTAL: 19 votes

CK’S PROJECTED TOP TEN:

1. Joel Cross (South Adelaide) – 23 votes
Chris Schmidt (West Adelaide) – 23 votes

3. James Boyd* (Central District) – 22 votes

4. Nick Liddle (South Adelaide) – 20 votes
James Allan (North Adelaide) – 20 votes

6. Brad Symes (Central District) – 19 votes
James Bennett* (North Adelaide) – 19 votes

8. Nathan Batsanis (Norwood) - 18 votes

9. Jaryd Cachia (Norwood) - 17 votes
10. Jarryd Lyons (Glenelg) - 15 votes

That is just a magnificent summary. Lots of thought annd knowledge put into this and of course time and effort .Well done.Now I'll read it ,I scanned it first and then was taken by the effort gone into this.

Wow ! Wonderful post CK !!

Great piece CK.

Yes, that's the most comprehensive look at a Magarey I've ever read, I think.

I'll have it next to me as a reference during the count.

Really well done, CK, and a real positive for good footy discussion on Talking Footy SA.

Well done CK, you should be in the media

Absolutely brilliant preview - CK is THE guru - leaves the media hacks in his wake.

Surely just a coincidence that today's Sunday Mail preview has the same two players leading their count, along with similar vote projections for the five players listed in their preview.

Both counts have James Allan having 4 BOG's, both refer to James Boyd and James Bennett being ineligible but near the top of the board, yet one preview was released Wednesday and one on Sunday.

Must be very similar observations out there.

Co-incidence, wait until you see the FOOT-e TIMES SA preview on Tuesday

The combined tally of panel votes produces a similar BUT different ladder.

Are you saying CK took your tally Phil ?

Not at all ... CK's write up is EXCELLENT!! Exceptionally well researched.

At FOOT-e TIMES SA, over the past week we have had all 6 of our reporters independently send in their overall top 10 and top 3 for each club.

It makes for an interesting collation which I am currently putting together.

Will be out approx 1pm Tuesday.

Looking forward to it, Phil.

Has my mate Don Cooper given any West players any votes at all

Yes, it looks very close to the mark. A lot of people have been pushing Batsanis up there but he has two things against him:
1. Too many other players taking votes from him
2. It usually takes awhile for umpires to notice new players unless they already have a profile.

eartotheground wrote:Surely just a coincidence that today's Sunday Mail preview has the same two players leading their count, along with similar vote projections for the five players listed in their preview.

Both counts have James Allan having 4 BOG's, both refer to James Boyd and James Bennett being ineligible but near the top of the board, yet one preview was released Wednesday and one on Sunday.

Must be very similar observations out there.

The similarities between the two previews was noted and discussed at length at AAMI Stadium yesterday by a number of parties. Could easily be two people with a similar perspective on the competition.

I believe the medal may be heading South this year, despite the panthers not winning often enough.
Many say Cross will win the medal ,he has won the Advertiser award for the second year in a row, however as someone who has witnessed most games this year I think hes had a quieter year than last year when he only garnered a few votes.
My tip for the medal is Nick Liddle,last years runner up- beaten in the last round of voting. He had a ripper start to the year in the first 6-7 games and should be an early leader in the count. He was heavily tagged in later stages of the year but still managed many 20+ possession games.
He's a prven vote getter , and in my opinion, pound for pound the best player in the sanfl.

I've become aware that several of the stalwart media people who cover the SANFL week after week and are passionate about our competition, have not been invited to the count.

It seems that some others from the big media outlets, who have a minor or tenuous link at best, have been invited.

I know the SANFL have to maintain good relationships with the larger media outlets, but it shouldn't be at the exclusion of those who put in the hard yards.

Who knows what the future holds for media coverage of the SANFL? It's not hard to see it being more community based and it seems churlish to exclude the committed and passionate.

BP and Nankers get an invite?


Seen a bit of Schmidt this year and I dont think he will win as he is not a flashy player....hope I am wrong.

Allan for me

Follow the TFSA Player of the Year votes being posted today, brodlach.

It's interesting.

I will.

Saying that about Chris, I am looking at it from an umpires point of view. Alot of his possessions are in close and in packs

I think you and I know R&B that he deserves to win it.

redandblack wrote:I've become aware that several of the stalwart media people who cover the SANFL week after week and are passionate about our competition, have not been invited to the count.

It seems that some others from the big media outlets, who have a minor or tenuous link at best, have been invited.

I know the SANFL have to maintain good relationships with the larger media outlets, but it shouldn't be at the exclusion of those who put in the hard yards.

Who knows what the future holds for media coverage of the SANFL? It's not hard to see it being more community based and it seems churlish to exclude the committed and passionate.

This sort of thing has been happening for years, ridiculous situations where stations such as 5AA get SANFL media awards, etc. Last Sunday, 5RPH had a quick shot at other radio stations who jump on the SANFL bandwagon in finals. They were right.

Unfortunately I don't think Schmidty will win it. Has a bit to say to the umpires and that doesn't usually go down too well with them. Hope I'm wrong though.

Liddle to win for mine.

Well the FOOT-e TIMES SA Magarey Medal preview is done, just struggling to load it onto the general section of the site due to some space restrictions. Stay tuned.