Sportsbeat August 24 2012

CK's Weekly SANFL previews and opinion piece - the latter looking at whether Norwood are over the line for the flag, or are there dents in the armour?

Interesting to see that, after correctly tipping West to beat Central and Norwood in successive weeks, CK is tipping Round 21 to start off with a major upset Friday night.

2012 ROUND 21 SANFL PREVIEWS

West Adelaide v South Adelaide (City Mazda Stadium) – Friday 7.40pm

The Bloods are now assured of the double chance and could make a late bid for second place, after two stirring wins against the top two clubs in successive weeks. The way in which they have responded when challenged against Central and Norwood bodes well for them heading into a finals series. A finals series that won’t include a bitterly disappointing South, who again folded in the final term to lose to Central last week by 49 points.

The risk for West now is the possibility of a mental letdown after two huge weeks, and with the corresponding lack of pressure now on South, it’s just the sort of match where a huge upset brews. West coach Andy Collins will be very aware of the possibility and will have his charges tuned up to the minute, but there is also the temptation to rest some sorer bodies with bigger jobs in mind. All things considered, will lean to the big upset here.

RADIO: 5RPH
Tip: South Adelaide 13-24

Norwood v Woodville/West Torrens (Coopers Stadium) – Saturday 2.10pm

The unusual setting of Norwood playing at home on a Saturday afternoon presents them with the ABC-TV Match Of The Day timeslot, but as coach Nathan Bassett has drily noted, they often don’t play their best footy under the ABC-TV spotlight this year. Both of their losses have been the televised game, whereas the Eagles are in unfamiliar territory in that regard.

The latter are making a real charge for finals action, with their heartstopping three point win over Port last week moving them just outside the top five. Some weeks ago, they would have dropped the match from that position, but the way in which they kept surging would send a warning to the rest of the competition against underestimating them. While there appears no incentive for the Redlegs, in terms of being unable to move higher or lower, they will also be guarding heavily against complacency leading into a finals campaign that has them better placed to win a flag than most times in the last 15 years.

Tempting though it is to take the Eagles here, will just lean to Norwood at home in a tight one.

TV: ABC-TV
Tip: Norwood 1-12

Central District v Sturt (Playford Alive Oval) – Saturday 2.10pm

The manner in which Central surged in the last quarter against South last week would suggest they are tuning up solidly for another finals campaign. 23.2, led by seven goals to Justin Hardy, was testament to their focus and ability to find space against a disappointing Panther outfit. Sturt had all the opportunity possible to down Glenelg, but fell five points short in a heartbreaker for Seamus Maloney’s group.

The time is arriving for the Bulldogs to start putting the foot down from the opening bounce in matches, after some slow starts lately. Against a team that is finding their most consistent football a challenge, however, they may find they are able to be more ruthless than we have seen for the past few weeks. Even if Sturt retain late withdrawals from last week, Angus Kurtze and Jade Sheedy, this just looks a bridge too far at this point.

RADIO: Life FM
Tip: Central District 49-60

North Adelaide v Port Adelaide (Prospect) –Sunday 2.10pm

Two teams fighting it out for a top five spot still, but Port simply can’t drop this one if they are to have any chance whatsoever. Now two games out with three games to go, they really need to go in with all guns blazing. North, on the other hand, can sew up their spot with victory, and the added incentive of Clint Alleway’s last game at Prospect, having announced his retirement at the end of the year, should give them plenty to play for.

The Magpies proved last time these teams met that, when they work the ball quickly into space, they can be very difficult to stop, particularly if they are afforded room to move in their attacking 50. Rooster coach Josh Francou would have noted plenty from that clash and been using the negatives when working the boards for this clash, and should have plenty up his sleeve should Port gain an early break. They are also finding more onballers willing to step up in the absence of James Allan, and many of the logical factors point to them taking the points here.

RADIO: 5RPH
Tip: North Adelaide 25-36

ARE NORWOOD OVER THE LINE?

Sitting top of the SANFL ladder, four games clear of their nearest rival, and having only lost two games all season, there is a school of thought that Norwood are almost ready to have their named engraved on the Thomas Seymour Hill trophy. The way in which they have so clinically disposed of so many rivals this year en route to the second semi final berth that awaits them, has a number of pundits declaring them one of the biggest premiership certainties of the modern era.

As any punter will tell you, however, hot favorites get rolled regularly and there are few things such as a dead certainty in any sport. While there is little doubt that Norwood is the form team of 2012, there are also enough pundits that suggest the race is still wide open. Many Redleg fans will still groan inwardly at the 2012 Grand Final. After Central had set much of the tone all season, they still looked on the ropes as Norwood surged at them, before finishing one kick short of pushing the season into another week with extra time. Their 2011 exit, however, raised more questions over the mental side of the red and blue, after being ruthlessly cast aside by eventual premiers, Woodville/West Torrens by 44 points.

The mental side is one that will be raised in discussions this year still about them, despite their dominance. With many players from the last two campaigns still involved, the perception exists that if things get tight, the old doubts will emerge. That said, many times this year, they have been able to find an extra gear again when challenged and draw away, so coach Nathan Bassett looks to have worked heavily on that mental application – to this point.

Injuries are always a factor for any club, and to this point, a number of Redlegs are facing a race against time to be fully tuned up for a finals series. Michael Newton, Kieran McGuinness, Bryce Campbell and Matthew Fuller won’t be seen again this year. It is expected that Luke Jericho and possibly Matt Suckling will also be placed on ice until the finals series. A number of other players are carrying the niggles to be expected by round 21 of a season. They wouldn’t want any further major injuries to key position players, particularly in ruck, where they have been vulnerable all season. Their depth is already being severely tested in a number of positions, and their big man stocks really need the return of Angus Clarke to ensure they can match it more strongly in the air.

They are able to defend very strongly – conceding an average of less than ten goals a game – but if they are shut down heavily in attack, the question then arises as to whether they can break the shackles and both kick a winning score and defend one. Last week against West, for example, they were scoreless in the final term after looking a show at three quarter time still. If a team breaks out to a big lead early in the finals, the question will then be posed as to whether they can reel the opposition in and still stop their scoring flow.
There is no questioning the expertise in the coaches box with Bassett, ably supported by his brother Scott, Adelaide Crows champion Andrew McLeod, Stephen Doyle and Jarrod Cotton. The strong scuttlebutt around town is that Nathan Bassett will depart the club at season’s end for a role in the AFL as an assistant coach, so there will be plenty of motivation for him to depart the club on a winning note and leave a strong legacy for his successor to follow.

So many permutations and so many possibilities as to whether silverware can return to the Parade for the first time since 1997. The one certainty is that so many Redleg fans will be counting the weeks until October.