18 - Sydney v Adelaide --- Port v St Kilda

Apparently someone authorised Gingernuts some annual leave and he's taken the fam bam North to catch some sun.

Adelaide head to Sydney to take on the out of sorts Swans while Port will be looking for back-to-back wins when they host the Sainters at lunchtime on Sunday.

In true form :

Discuss away folks.

Well done to Tippo on his 100th and Rory Laird on his 50th Game

In the good old days, (anything pre 2015, the Goodes' booing saga would have united Sydney and thy would have run through a brick wall to prove their unity and I would have said we were no hope. On the other hand - the pre 2015 Swans would not have been carved up by West coast and the Hawks like they were so we perhaps have a new Swans to consider.
No cognised ruckman will mean Sauce gives the Adelaide midfield first use. The Swans midfielders aren't what they were in the good old days either. Having no Goodes or Tippet means that there is only Buddy that is a real threat and Talia plays well on him. I think the Crows have more scoring options and can close down the Sydney midfield and attack and should win a close on in the harbour city.

Port should win by 5 goals. If they lose to the Saints then questions will need to be asked about their players and coaching strategies as a team many predicted would finish top 4 will miss the finals by a bit.

Sydney v Adelaide

What’s happened to the Swannies? Not only are they getting beaten, they’re getting BEATEN! Sure, they’ve faced West Coast and Hawthorn in the last fortnight but 9 goal and 15 goal losses haven’t been seen in Sydney since John Ironmonger was leading the rucks. Adelaide continued their good form by holding off the Suns by 45 points at home and have to wait another year to face former Crow Kurt Tippett. He’s busy this week, something about a new solarium getting craned into the shack at Bondi.

It’s been a fortnight the Swans would rather forget, pushing for a top two spot one week and all of a sudden clinging onto 4th spot with only Bacher Houli to thank. The last month they’ve kicked 7,7,10 and 14 goals with the big budget forward line struggling to function. It’s after half time that they are getting rolled. In 16 games they’ve won only 7 third quarters and 8 last quarters, that means after half time they are lucky to break even with their opponent. Is this a drop off in intensity from the side we expect it from the most or is it fitness or both?

Adelaide have had a big scoring fortnight, 19 goals against the Suns and 18 against Port means their mids are reaping the rewards of Sam Jacobs work and the forwards are looking like a cohesive unit after having some mixed form in the first half of the year. Walker is getting his hands on it, perhaps moving as free as he has since the cork from Mitchell, Jenkins has 6 goals in two weeks and if it isn’t Eddie Betts it’s Charlie Cameron sneaking out the back or roving the packs and finishing off the work of Dangerfield, Douglas and Thompson.

Interesting match up here, Sydney really out of form and desperate to win and stay in the top 4 while Adelaide could almost secure a finals spot with a win in the harbour city. How do you pick it? Either you forget the Swans last two weeks and back them at home or you see it as more than that. Adelaide are in good nick, Sydney aren’t. I think Adelaide can win this one, but I’m not sure they will.....Adelaide by 9 points

Port v St Kilda

Both sides head to Adelaide Oval with a win under their belt from last weekend, neither side have had much to really smile about this year with both groups showing inconsistency and indifferent from not only from week to week but from quarter to quarter and it might be another stop start affair when Port host the Sainters over the lamb roast just after noon on Sunday. ( Who else used to have a roast every Sunday as a kid but now just dreams of being able to afford one? )

Port are getting involved in plenty of shootouts, more by accident (read clanger) than by design. 5 games this year with both sides 100+ points, Port in 4 of them. The most frustrating part for Port fans is a year of so close but so far. In 2015 Port have an average losing margin of just 19 points across their 9 losses, only West Coasts 3 at 16 points and Hawthorns 4 by an astounding average of 6 points have fared better. So while Port have squandered plenty of opportunities they have obviously created plenty for themselves and the opposition. Tidy up some inefficient disposal and Port could be back where they were in 2014 without much changing in personel. (15th for disposal efficiency ) Last week saw Chad Wingard continue his stellar form, 7 weeks of 3 or more goals and that makes 26 games in a row where he’s had two fingers from the goal umpire. Quite brilliant stats from a young man who is a quite brilliant finisher in front of the uprights.

Looking at the numbers the Saints are mid table in plenty of key areas, but one stood out. Average winning margin, 34.3 points. Average losing margin, 34.4 points! So they win by 5 goals or lose by 5 goals. ( Yes, yes, averages I know...I’m not interested in means, medians or anything that needs a degree to understand ). Luckily for them they had the Demons dished up to break a three game losing streak and while it was a win it was an unsightly affair with their class rising to the top. Reiwoldt forward, Fisher back, Montagna middle. The old blokes who have memories of September action stood up when the side needed them and set them on the way to a win. Looks like Billy Longer, ex-Bear, is finding some fitness and is starting to show why they chased him. He’s got a lot of work to do, but looks like he’s ready to be the #1 ruckman.

You would think Port at home will be too strong for the Saints, I expect Port to make it back to back wins, by 28 points.

Tippett will be playing his first game against Adelaide

Sydney by 40
Port by 119 if dry........69 if wet

I think the Crows will get up over the Swans this week, the Crows seem to play the SCG pretty well and they seem to have pretty strong support in the crowd. Its my view that the result of this game will be a good indicator of where the Crows are at in respect to the finals should they make it. - Crows by 24 pts.

Port are hitting their straps and I think will record a good win over St Kilda at home, Port by 54pts.

I write my previews on Wednesday/Thursday, as such I often post before final team selections.

I'll change my Sydney v Adelaide tip to Sydney by 14 points with their inclusions.

Quality previews, Booney, always a good read.

So much for my theory about the AFC playing the SCG pretty well, - yet the Port margin was a about right!

Will Port make the finals from here?

Ben W wrote:So much for my theory about the AFC playing the SCG pretty well, - yet the Port margin was a about right!

Will Port make the finals from here?

Not from here from this week effort (8.8.15)