Round 6 Previews

Courtesy of the SANFL's and Sportsbeat's Chris Kendall - tipped all 5 winners last week


Norwood v Adelaide Reserves (Coopers Stadium) – Friday 7.40pm.
HEAD TO HEAD: Nwd 2, Adel 0
LAST TWO ENCOUNTERS:
2014 Rnd 18: Nwd 18.12 (130) d Adel 8.17 (65)
2014 Rnd 7: Nwd 16.9 (105) d Adel 11.8 (74)

The Redlegs carried on their merry way to top spot on the ladder after a workmanlike defeat of Glenelg last week, led by a dominant performance from state squad member Brady Dawe and five goals from Michael Newton that could easily have been seven or eight. Adelaide gave South a number of scares, hitting the front in the third quarter before fading to a 14 point loss. The AFL staff would have been encouraged by Mitch Grigg and Sam Kerridge combining for 65 possessions, but would some easy misses at times that could have given them the ascendancy.
The two previous matches have been strong wins to the Redlegs, with Adelaide leading only once at a quarter break, but the home team will be wary of Adelaide’s ability to get a quick run-on that be scored quickly from. Norwood’s press, however has proven very hard to teams to navigate this season and when they can clog the movement into the opposition 50, their rebounding options from the turnover are swift and precise. Mitch Wilkins continues to grow into his defensive role, and Dylan Reinbrecht’s incredible 18 tackles from last week will give Adelaide coach Heath Younie plenty to think about as far as an opponent is concerned. All things considered, though, even if the AFL arm swings the axe at selection, Norwood look to be packing too many guns here.

Radio: 5RPH
Tip: Norwood 37-48



Central District v South Adelaide (Playford Alive Oval) – Saturday 1.40pm
HEAD TO HEAD: CD 74, SA 45, Drawn 1
LAST THREE ENCOUNTERS:
2014 Rnd 11: CD 13.6 (84) d SA 11.8 (74)
2014 Rnd 4: SA 12.12 (84) d CD 11.10 (76)
2013 Rnd 15: CD 8.11 (59) d SA 4.11 (35)

Two highly contrasting teams for 2015, with South holding firm in the upper echelons, while Central continue to struggle to put four quarters together. The Bulldogs had brief flickers against West last week, but the gap between their top level and bottom level of their best 21 is widening, and coach Roy Laird is running out of new options to try to arrest the decline. South overcame some scares from the Adelaide Reserves before notching a 14 point win, with some of their lesser lights such as Nathan Daniel and debutant Michael Ross stepping up when it counted. Their ball movement, apart from a brief third quarter period, was precise and broke the lines when needed to bank another set of points in their quest for a top three spot.
Central have won 16 of their last 17 matches at Elizabeth, but that takes into account a golden era that has finished, so the current group needs to look to creating their own history rather than looking past on past glories. There are a number of younger players that look willing to buy into the game plan and take their chances, but there also needs to be more chances taken with their play to try and create, rather than stagnate into old habits. It has proven a key to South’s rise in the Brad Gotch era, with players given latitude to try things and back themselves in for a risk-reward scenario. This will also come in time for the Bulldogs, but they will face some more losses before it improves, and this looks to continue here.

TV: Channel Seven
Tip: South Adelaide 25-36


Woodville/West Torrens v Glenelg (Maughan Thiem Hyundai Oval) – Sunday 2.10pm
HEAD TO HEAD: W/WT 41, Gl 21, Drawn 2
LAST THREE ENCOUNTERS:
2014 Rnd 12: W/WT 15.11 (101) d Gl 8.10 (58)
2014 Rnd 6: W/WT 17.12 (114) d Gl 9.10 (64)
2013 Rnd 18: W/WT 10.10 (70) d Gl 3.8 (26)

With the best percentage in the league, the Eagles lurk dangerously outside the top two, but will be poised to make their charge over the coming weeks after a brilliant second half against the Magpies. Angus Rowntree and Jared Petrenko’s importance to the structures were again proven after combining for 46 disposals and 14 clearances to send the Eagles forward on numerous occasions. The class gulf between the top level and bottom level was again apparent when Glenelg battled hard all night against Norwood but were never really in the hunt, despite the best efforts of Sam Lonergan and Matthew Snook around the stoppages.
Generally, the Eagles have held sway over the last few years in these contests, winning the last four by no less than 43 points and on paper, this looks set to continue here also. They are moving the ball with great purpose and speed this year, breaking the lines and working it quickly from the stoppages into attack where the load has been spread fairly well. Glenelg have some talented youngsters taking their opportunity, such as Bryce Woolard and Joshua Miller, but while this bodes well for the future, the present is still causing them some headaches. More consistent attacking options are needed, particularly in the smaller brigade, as the opposition defence simply zones to Clint Alleway more often than not. It’s hard to see enough Eagles players having a bad enough day to drop the points here.

Radio: 5RPH
Tip: Woodville/West Torrens 37-48


Port Magpies v Sturt (Alberton Oval) – Saturday 2.10pm
HEAD TO HEAD: Port 176, St 97, Drawn 2
LAST THREE ENCOUNTERS:
2014 Rnd 12: Port 12.11 (83) d St 8.15 (63)
2014 Rnd 6: Port 19.12 (126) d St 11.10 (76)
2013 Rnd 21: St 12.14 (86) d Port 11.13 (79)

The Magpies fell out of the top five for the first time this week since 2013, after a notable fadeout against the Eagles, as their depth starts being tested with some injuries at the AFL level. Jarrad Redden responded to his demotion strongly with 37 hitouts against his old side but their inability to find a multiple goalkicker outside of Mitch Harvey cost them dearly despite having four more inside 50s. Sturt held sway for most of the game against North, drawing away impressively to notch a 62 point win after a 14.5 to 7.3 second half. The pleasing aspect for coach Seamus Maloney was how many of their lesser lights are shining and taking the focus from the usual suspects,
It would be unwise to predict the demise of the Magpies this early into 2015, but they do look to be less dominant than last season. A number of the same names are cropping up each week and the time is ripe for some of their next level to take their chance and press for higher honours to increase the pressure on the playing group overall. This is where Sturt are finding that point of difference, by increasing the number of options for the opposition to shut down, as it opens a more unpredictable lineup. Matches between these clubs tend to be fairly attacking, with each of the last eight matches featuring at least 63 points kicked by the losing team, and this trend should continue here. In an absolute line ball call, will just lean to the Magpies to atone.

Radio: Life FM
Tip: Port 1-12


West Adelaide v North Adelaide (City Mazda Stadium) – Saturday 2.10pm
HEAD TO HEAD: WA 108, NA 149, Drawn 1
LAST THREE ENCOUNTERS:
2014 Rnd 10: NA 21.10 (136) d WA 7.7 (49)
2014 Rnd 3: NA 9.16 (70) d WA 7.13 (55)
2013 PF: NA 16.16 (112) d WA 8.8 (56)

West’s emergence as the 2015 surprise packet took another step when they moved into the top five with a solid victory over Central to take them to a 3-1 record. Kaine Stevens’s sound start to the season moved another step with 24 disposals and seven inside 50’s, while five goals to Aaron Fielke proved the difference in a 34 point win. North started well against Sturt, but faded the longer the day went, finding it hard to get their hands on the ball with 59 less possessions in a 62 point loss. Some of their defensive movement created easy goals for the Double Blues, and more poise through the middle is needed if they are to turn things around.
One of the biggest changes at West in the off-season is their speed and preciseness of disposal, particularly from defence, and their ball movement through the middle is shared among a number of options to make it harder to close them down. Chris Schmidt’s excellent start to 2015 has been well complemented by Will Snelling’s quick adaption to the game plan and with the goals being shared around, the task looks tough for North. The Roosters seem to be thin on taller defensive options, particularly evident when Todd Miles had to ruck last week with James Craig’s mid game injury, and unless they can get some of their smaller mobile defenders showing more patience in the back half, another defeat is looming for North.

SANFL RADIO
Tip: West Adelaide 25-36

If Sturt beat Port and all the other results are as predicted, quite a gap opens up between the top 5 and the bottom 5, with the 5th side being 2 games clear of 6th with a game in hand.

4/5 this week, including two correct margin ranges - the draw the only result not correct.