Round 9

Above all else the news that Jarryd Roughead and his doctors have discovered a return of his melanoma struck the football world this week. Teams win and lose, supporters laugh or cry, but its just a silly game when we are reminded of the fragility of life. Much has been written about Roughy and his likeability, hard pressed to think of a more widely admired young man. We all send our best wishes to him and not only that, to all people who are facing their own battle with the dreaded “C” who aren’t in the media spotlight, supported by thousands of social media posts.


Hawthorn v Sydney –

The Hawks just did as they do in Tassie last week, going down there and getting the points over the Dockers as the Swans did what nobody thought they could, lose to the Tigers. I read “$1.23 for Sydney, like picking money up off the ground”. Whoops!

The Hawks had some big numbers from Mitchell,Puopolo and Gibson early, but it’s been Breust and Gunston in the last few weeks that have got going. 16 goals in the last two weeks from these boys spells trouble for the rest of the comp. Whilst the Giants bent the Hawks over and questions were being asked, the Hawks still sit 6-2 and well placed for yet another top 4 finish. The Giants broke them open with pace and not many sides match the Giants in that area, breaking the Hawks zone open regardless of personnel is still a tough ask, now they’ve got a few fowards in form they’ll score more and create scoreboard pressure.

Sydney are the most metronomic of the AFL sides, their best and worst is not far apart so it’s almost inconceivable to think they threw away a lead in the last 2 minutes to the rabble that is Richmond. Dean Towers blew it open kicking to a contest when Buddy was free on the wing with under 1 minute to go. Buddy would have made him aware and I’m sure Horse did too. He won’t make that mistake again. Same names, same stats, Buddy with 5 more. All very familiar to us all. Again, 6-2 and not making any unnecessary noises.

Sydney score more, concede less, but it’s Hawthorn at the G. Form is hard to gauge here, you would think Sydney going well wouldn’t even let Richmond close, but it took something special to beat them. Will Roughy’s plight play on the Hawks mind in a negative or positive manner? For mine, they’ll rise up for him. The Hawks in a FNF belter, by 8 points. ( Betting Hawks $1.64 – Sydney $2.30 )



Collingwood v Geelong –

Where has that Collingwood been? I picked the Bears to pip them, they couldn’t have even tripped them such was the gap between the Pies and Lions players early. In Adelaide it was all about Patrick, the Cats got the odd mention on the way to rolling Adelaide, but didn’t Patrick like those cameras? Geelongs defence stood tall.

The most misleading match of the last round, “Collingwood fight back”, “Buckley bounces back”, bollocks. Brisbane were simply atrocious. Take the 80 point win with a pinch of salt here, the opposition were so frightfully poor not even the worst of Collingwood’s form could drop that one. Pendles smoothing his way through the middle is much nicer than his Cotchin around the back stuff and Treloar is earning his coin after putting a pretty healthy price on his own head. Runs hard, kicks goals, he’s been a worthy addition. Still, no Cloke though.

The Catters are genuine, off season recruiting not only got them Patrick but some help down back for the wiley veterans and Henderson makes the life of Taylor and Enright just that little bit easier. How good was Guthrie? His work around the stoppages was excellent, watch Joel, Patrick gets it, watch Patrick, Guthrie gets it....that’s some serious midfield grunt that they have. As is the modern game what you do without the ball as a midfielder is just as important and they all go both ways. Makes them a formidable unit.

Collingwoods win was worth 0. The Cats march on here by 42 points. ( Geelong $1.16 Collingwood $5.35 )



Gold Coast v Adelaide –

Bad to worse was three weeks ago, what happens when you go from worse to worserer? ( My column, I’ll make up words if I want to ) Might be the sunshine state but it aint shining on either side up there. Two weeks in a row Adelaide give up loads of I50’s, have few themselves, stay in the contest. Good signs, or bad?

Another lamentable loss for the Suns, this time to the Giants who simply dismantled the Suns from the get go. The Suns, under Retired Eade still paly man on man football, oh no, don’t buy into this zone rubbish that these young coaches have rolled out for the last 10 years, it’s man-on-man and we’ll work through it. Bap bow...( Family Fued buzzer ). The heat must be on Eade, it has to be, clearly they’re down on personnel but so are many sides and the others aren’t rolling over belly up. Big test now as there’s just pride on the line and they don’t show much of it.

How have Adelaide been so close in the last two weeks? Against the Dogs they lost the I50 count 68-37...-31. Against the Cats, 61-44. -17. How then were they in both games with less than a few minutes to play? Well, other than Rory Sloane in the Cats game and Jenkins in the Dogs game it’s only been Henderson and Lynch who have fronted up both weeks, yet they still hang in there. Good signs hanging in, bad signs when they bleed so hard down back. Fast midfields have left them wanting and they might need to inject some pace (not Essendon “pace”) into the side to take the step from top 8 to top 4. Forward line still the key to their success.

Got a feeling this won’t be pretty, Adelaide on the back of two losses will be keen to atone and the Suns offer no resistance. Adelaide 50+. ( Adelaide $1.03 Gold Coast $13 )



Port Adelaide v West Coast –

Not sure where to start with this one, 17 points up with 3 minutes to go and just stopped, simply stopped. Lack of composure from a side with some strong leaders a real worry. Don’t go to the cinemas for Eddie the Eagle, if you want downhill skiers just visit Perth and watch the Eagles at home. The Saints no match.

While the last 5 minutes was a train wreck to watch I’ll highlight the first half of the match as to where Port lost it. 8.9 at half time to 7.4. Only 6 more scoring shots but at least 4 of them were sitters, two of them went the length of the field after the behind came back in and instead of being 5 or 6 goals up at half time it was 11 points. The game wasn’t won then, it could have been. Port couldn’t break out of the Bolton holt’em zone and it meant the forward line had to break it’s structure and all too often Port streamed forward with the only people in front of them the pie eaters in row A. Trengove will be real tired soon, Wines and Hartlett got in amongst it some more, the forward lacked spark though and the midfield lacked composure. Too often Port players were simply caught stone cold, reaks of lack of talk and team work. Again.

All aboard at home indeed. I gave the Saints a rough, very rough chance last week and that lasted less than 30 minutes as the Eagles opened up an onslaught not many sides would be able to stop. 9 goals at ¼ time with Kennedy having 5 in the bag. They simply ran riot over the Saints and players all over the ground were finding space and time to deliver to the hungry hungry hippos up front. Le CRas with 6, JK with 5, Hutchings and Darling a couple then the midfielders chimed in. Can they do it away from home?

Clearly two sides in a different space, the Eagles get their first gettable opponent away from home for the year and if Carltons zone is too much for Port then the Eagles web on the relatively narrow Adelaide Oval will be too. Eagles by 26 points. ( West Coast $1.42 Port $2.90 )


North Melbourne v Carlton –

North had the unique experience of walking off last week as the winners, only to hear the losers receive a standing ovation. Huh? Careful entering the Lygon St area at the moment, there’s likely to be a zone stopping you from coming back out.

Nort have had a couple of quiet weeks however they still find themselves perched on top and “The view is good from up here” I’ve been told, careful going the early crow. 7 points winners over the Saints ( led by 19 at half time ) and 14 points over the Bombers ( led by 50 at half time ), so it is just a case of not working hard enough, dare I say not respecting the opposition enough? I’m saying yes, but with good reason. The diatribe rolled out about “there’s no easy game” might be true, but players in good sides who are on top of bad sides can’t help but take the foot of the pedal a little. I think we’ll see a more ruthless Kangas this week.

Carlton, 4 in a row and they pinched it from Port with under 2 minutes to go. I’ve spoken about the goods signs for the Blues and one of them is the players believing in the system. Pretty damning for the previous coach as under his reign they were listless, now the teaching man in Bolton has educated them on a process, they believe in the process and more importantly they are prepared to work to make it happen. They choked the life out of Ports back half run last week and gained repeated F50 entries, without Casboult it wasn’t so damaging, they’re ability to stop sides flowing from half back is very important.

Are the Blues a chance here? Not sure, but you can hear the woodwork creaking with Blue baggers coming back out. I think the Kangas might be set for a more complete performance this week, by 33 points. Carlton struggling for big men after losing Casboult and Kreuzer last week. ( North $1.22 Carlton $4.35 )


Fremantle v Richmond –

At 0-8 the Dockers are in unfamiliar territory, not even the Suns and Giants have been there in recent times, some improved performances in the last 2 weeks but nothing tangible to show for it but on the flip side the Tigger train is stopping all stations after a last gasp win seemingly has them finals bound again. Oh, I laugh.

Three weeks ago the Dockers faithful would have been upping anchor and looking to secure a seat at this one. While they might not look forward to singing that song the opportunity to at least roll out that old ditty would have been attractive. Now they’d not be so sure! What they’ve done in the last two weeks against the Giants and Hawks is get the score board going, a little, the previous two weeks they were around 65 points for, the last two 77 points for, it’s only a couple of goals but it’s getting closer to the mark that can win you matches. Not real close, but closer.

Where did that come from? The Tigers have started their run to September with a thrilling after the siren 1 point win over the Swannies. It took a Lloyd to do it, no surprise there really. Not many sides rely on one bloke as much as the Tigers back half does on Rance. He really is the measure for them, he halted Bud after he looked set to explode and then he set up and created for the little blokes around him. Amazing game last week, before half time 4 goals to Richmond, then 5 to Sydney, then 5 to Richmond, then 4 to Sydney, then the two killers to Richmond to finish. Perhaps a little lucky, lets be straight, very lucky to pinch it with Sydney faltering at the end.

The tigers don’t mind going West, they broke the Fremantle run last year when they rolled them in round 12 to stop the Dockers unbeaten run, the Dockers owe them one....but I can’t pick Fremantle....nor can I pick the Tigers. I’m calling it, the first draw of the year! ( I’ll go Richmond in my tipping comps ) ( Richmond $1.80 Freo $2.02 )


Melbourne v Brisbane –

Another step forward for Melbourne last week, they’ve shown they can compete with teams around them and are no longer embarrassed by the teams above them. Not every time, anyway. Ouch. Feel the burn? That’s the feeling you get after Collingwood tear you apart. Horrible.

All sides have found it hard to break into the F50 when playing the Dogs but here’s a stat, Melbournes 48 I50’s last week is the most the Dogs have conceded this year. Yep, even in their two losses they haven’t let an opposition side in that many times. That’s good going by the Demons, a sign the back half is giving the midfield some delivery into space, the midfield working to move it quickly and in and under (clearances -4 last week ) and the forwards are liking it. GWS, Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide the only sides to have more “For” than them. Yep, they’re 5th for points scored. Just need to tidy up the back half.

Not a lot can be written about the Lions in the last two weeks, they’ve been belted around the middle. They lost clearances last week 48-24 and with that let the opposition I50 70 times. Competition average is 37 clearances per game, now with the likes of Rich, Zorko, 2 Beams, Christensen, Robinson, Bastinac, bell and Taylor they might not have a premiership winning midfield like the early 00’s but they’ve got enough class and grunt there to make the most of Stef Martins ruckwork. He broke even in hitouts, the blokes below him just didn’t work hard enough. Terrible.

No happy news for Lions fans here, this one has trouble written all over it. With Dayne Beams a possible omission the old “Roy boys in Melbourne might stay home from this one. Melbourne by 40+ points. ( Melbourne $1.16 Brisbane $5.15 )



GWS v Bulldogs –

The Giants recorded their biggest ever win last week over their young cousins, Gold Coast no match for the Orange Army who now appear certain of playing finals for the first time, the highest scoring team in the comp to date. The Doggies had another solid win, this time over the more impressive Demons and at the G, showing they aren’t just an indoor dog.

The big friendlies are building up, really quickly too. A few “experts” told us a couple of years ago the AFL had created a monster and they appear to be right, with #1 and top #10 picks galore they were set up to not fail. The thing is, those kids are now 80-100 gamers who know the caper and can now see all the hard work is about to pay off. I speak of I50’s a lot, it’s where you score so the more of them the better, simple. The Giants average nearly 60 per game, the Dogs let in under 40, can the Giants crack through the Dogs midfield? I think they can, with pace and skills on the outside. Cameron back in wit ha bag of 7 and Hopper with about the most impressive debut you’ll ever see. 32 touches, 17 contested and 9 clearances. He’d be a must buy for Fantasy fans?

The Dogs have felt the loss of some key runners and that has seen them opened up a little more in defence, Adelaide bagging 17 majors on them and the Dee’s getting I50 48 times, but scoring hasn’t been an issue, 18 and 17 majors in the last two weeks. Spells a little bit of trouble against the fast and relentless GWS side though. The loss of Redpath as the key forward target and the reliable Boyd across half back tests the depth even further. The defence is now without Suckling, Murphy and Johannisen, as well as Boyd. Too much to cover.

The Giants on a 5 game streak should make it 6 against the Dogs side missing too much class across the back half. Giants by 28 points. ( GWS $1.37 Dogs $3.15 )



Sts v Essendon –

Wouldn’t have been a chatty flight back from Perth after getting done by over 100 points and kicking only 3 goals last week, the Saints coach didn’t see that coming he said....should have looked harder. *Standing ovation please* As the Bombers faithful stood up as one to cheer of their triumphant....I mean, defeated Bombers. Showed some heart, Port and the Gold Coast could look that way for some advice.

Up and down the Saints, they’re up and still lose and then they’re down which is understandable. Just when they look to have turned some form into scoreboard pressure they come up against an opposition side that’s just better than them. A good win over Melbourne was followed by the Kangas and a trip to Perth, no time to breathe. They wouldn’t want to take this week too lightly though. Bruce, Reiwoldt and Membrey will need to offer the mids a target this week, the Bombers flow up and down the ground and if you’re a clever forward you’ll find space against the daring play and Reiwoldt is just that, smart and hard working I think he’s in for a big one here.

They do take you on, Worsfold should be admired for not building a wall across half back and just copping punishment. He lets the kids take the game on and try and score, good sides hurt them on the rebound but at least he’s letting them play footy. They are the lowest scoring team, key forwards are rare and Daniher gets the best big defender and the third man up, his isn’t an easy job. Defensively they don’t bleed anywhere near as much as the other cellar dwellers, that’s because they do their best to get it the hell out of there!

I think the Saints might be too good here but they would not want to take this one lightly. 4:40 Sunday, get your tickets today folks, wouldn’t want to miss out! Saints by 21 points. ( Sts $1.20 Bombers $4.65 )

I'm using my "Richmond never win when favorites" theory and going for the Dockers. There are some cracker games this week. Tonight's should be a beauty.