R17 - Adelaide v Gold Coast & Essendon v Port

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Post by Gingernuts on Wed Jul 22, 2015 1:22 pm

Well, after a memorable Showdown focus turns back to trying to play finals for both Adelaide based sides.

After what has been an extraordinary month, Adelaide will be full of confidence after a fantastic win. They played some of their best footy for the year, with fluid ball movement, fantastic clearance work, and tough hard tackling in the clinches.

Gold Coast this Saturday afternoon in front of a home crowd presents a great opportunity to consolidate their spot in the 8 and really is a must win if they have any finals aspirations.

Port on the other hand are all but done now, and despite still being a mathematical chance will now find it very difficult to make finals. Essendon this week is as cherry ripe a chance to chalk up a win as they're going to get for the rest of the season. Surely they'll get the job done.

Post away.
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Post by Booney on Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:50 pm

Adelaide burst out of the blocks last week and had 6 goals on the board quick smart on their way to their highest score since the round 7 win over the Saints while the Suns firmly entrenched themselves in the bottom two with a 3 goal loss to the Giants. The Crows will be full of emotion every time they take to the park for the remainder of 2015 at very least and they harnessed all of that emotion in the lead up to and through the running of Showdown 39.

Adelaide hit the scoreboard on the back of some good form from their mids, the 3 big names in Adelaides midfield combined 32 clearances, Thompson, Douglas and Dangerfield making the most of the dominance of Jacobs in the ruck and key big men Walker, Jenkins and Lynch prospered from it. 19 marks (7 of them I50 ) and 8 goals between them proved to be the difference in the 3 point win. In the back half Henderson used the ball well on the way out and Brown, Smith and Laird were happy to help him.

Again the Suns were all about the little bald bloke with the beard. Not Paul Chapman,by the way. Ablett led his team as pretty much only he can, 30 touches, 17 tackles and 3 goals. In Supercoach / Dream Team / Fantasy stuff that must equate to a **** load of points. Pity most of you would have traded him away weeks ago. Alongside him Touk Miller had a super day out, 27 touches, 5 tackles and a couple of goals saw him deservedly win the Rising Star nomination last weekend.

It won’t be easy for any side to come to Adelaide and beat the Crows over the next 2 months and the Suns are hardly in any sort of form to do so. I can see Adelaide taking them to the sword in front of their home crowd for the first time since the Walsh tragedy. Adelaide by 70 points.
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Post by Booney on Thu Jul 23, 2015 11:39 am

Urrghhh. I think I’ve started about 5 Port game previews with uuurggghhh this year. Each one of them the game that everyone “expects” Port to win. Both sides have only had the one win in the last 5 weeks with Port over Collingwood and Essendon over Melbourne. Not great from lines for either side set to get a top 10 draft pick.

In that time Port have gone with Sydney for 7/8ths of a game and with Adelaide for all but about 5 minutes while beating the ‘Pies. Essendon have been less than convincing especially in the 100+ point loss to St Kilda and last FNF to the Roos with a tight win over the Demons in there. So 12th v 14th with not much but pride on the line. Little bit of interest with Paddy Ryder facing his old side for the first time and let’s get one thing straight ( Mr Goodes ), when Ryder gets “boooo’s” from the Essendon crowd on Saturday night it will be wholly and soley because he left the Bombers mid-contract when things were rough at Bomber land. Not for any other reason, nothing sinister, nothing to do with underlying social issues.

Port have adopted a similar approach to goal scoring as the Bombers recently, heading out onto the wings looking for goal posts to no avail. With both sides struggling for any continuity from their key forwards and mids playing sideways this one does not shape up to be much of a spectacle at all. Port should have the edge in the big man department with Lobbe and Ryder probably facing Jon Giles from Port/GWS lack of fame after Shaun McKernan played his way into the VFL last week against the Kangaroos.

With the big man advantage and the fact Essendon are 18th for both centre clearances and total clearances Port should get first use of the ball. **** knows what we’ll do with it as we’ve got a real penchant for fumbling, kicking to nobody and missing targets at the moment. Port tackle more, do more 1%’ers and average 2.5 more goals per game. It isn’t a fait accompli though. Port should get more of the ball, they should get more hit outs and more I50’s. With all of that can they kick a score capable of beating the Bombers? Again, they should....

My heart says Port, of course, my head says Port, but my guts is in a knot knowing this is another of the ones “Port should win”. Aka Brisbane, Carlton, Richmond......they will win this one though. Port by 29 points.
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Post by UncleHuey on Thu Jul 23, 2015 1:18 pm

Good review Booney.
Everything says Port should win - but they have a very ordinary record in games after Showdowns and it would not surprise me if they lose.
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Post by Gingernuts on Thu Jul 23, 2015 3:32 pm

Two good match previews again, as always Booney.

I too think Adelaide will tear Gold Coast a new one this weekend despite the resurrection of the Son of God.

They will absolutely lap up the opportunity to return to normality in front of their home crowd without the distraction of Walsh tributes.

Also some huge selection pressure on at the moment with Sloane named to come back in, and Cheney fit. Also Kerridge and CEY smashing down the door in the SANFL last weekend. Personally I'd like to see Kerridge come in for Wright.

Andy Otten also back into things and could come into frame closer to September.

Lots of depth at West Lakes at this point in time, a huge positive going into the crunch time of the season.
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Post by Booney on Thu Jul 23, 2015 4:06 pm

I think CEY will need to string a couple of good ones together mate, he was pretty low in output in his last few AFL games, I think they'll want to see good numbers offensively and a little more defensive intent.

Kerridge ahead of VB in the stopping role to run with GAj?

Is Talia a chance to be rested after his concussion, short turn around and the return of Cheney? Mind you, if Dixon comes back in for the Suns then they have Dixon and Lynch as big bodies forward.
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Post by Booney on Thu Jul 23, 2015 4:45 pm

Might drop my Adelaide winning margin prediction a little, looks like it is going to be quite wet on Saturday. Might bring it back to 50 odd points.
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Post by Gingernuts on Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:05 am

Booney wrote:I think CEY will need to string a couple of good ones together mate, he was pretty low in output in his last few AFL games, I think they'll want to see good numbers offensively and a little more defensive intent.

Kerridge ahead of VB in the stopping role to run with GAj?

Is Talia a chance to be rested after his concussion, short turn around and the return of Cheney? Mind you, if Dixon comes back in for the Suns then they have Dixon and Lynch as big bodies forward.

Yea I agree about CEY needing a few games, but it is great to see an immediate response from him.

Only change is Sloane for Crouch. I'm very surprised at Crouch being dropped, he has been excellent in the past month. Very unlucky.
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Post by Paul on Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:11 am

Both SA teams should win, at least one won't.

Gold Coast by 17 in a Showdown letdown
Essendon by 16 with 2 extra days break
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