Port v Gold Coast & Adelaide v Richmond

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Post by Gingernuts on Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:52 am

Well, another interesting week ahead of us for both Adelaide based sides.

Port looked better last week against Sydney, but a loss is a loss and the dramatic slide in form continues. Surely they can head up to the Coast and get a good win under the belt and some confidence back against the Ablett-less Suns.

The Adelaide yo-yo continued last week as well, with a supremely dominant display against Brisbane. Fans would obviously be happy, but at the same time scratching their heads at the dramatic form fluctuations. A huge game this week at the AO on Saturday night between 2 sides that have been scoring very freely over the last 6 weeks or so. We could have a real shoot out on our hands. Who will win?

Let's spin the Adelaide form wheel and see what we get, clack-a-clack-a-clack-a-clack-a......
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Post by bayman on Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:17 pm

Port & Richmond in close games
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Post by A Mum on Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:19 am

Tough one this week - surely Richmond are due for a loss?????
And Port - surely they won't get beaten by Gold Coast.
 
I'll go:
Crows by under 10 points
Power by 30+
 
May the force be with us! Port v Gold Coast & Adelaide v Richmond 2829010660
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Post by UncleHuey on Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:58 pm

Port should win easily.
I think the Crows will have another off week and lose a close one.
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Post by Booney on Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:04 pm

Adelaide off a 5 day break in the sweltering Brisbane heat, Richmond off 8 days. Might be the difference.

Maric coming up against Jacobs in good form ( Jacobs has had zero opposition in recent weeks while he is in stellar form ).

Richmond running hard, scoring goals and enjoying their football with winning form and momentum on their side. This one shapes up as a beauty! I think Adelaide are in good nick, but the loss of Otten and I dount Lynch will get up means Podsiadly comes back in and perhaps Shaw. Talia, Thompson and Shaw does not look at strong as Talia, Hartigan and Otten IMO.

Port got some defensive pressure back up and running against Sydney and looked dangerous moving the ball from defence for the first time in a month.

Gold Coast kids without Gablett are looking cooked. Flat. They know finals are out of reach.

Port must win this to avoid a serious threat of missing finals. Port will win this.
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Post by Scrunch on Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:35 pm

Power 40+, Schultz with a bag.

Then ... Flip a coin ... TAILS!! Richmond by 8 points
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Post by Gingernuts on Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:46 am

Been thinking a lot about Adelaide's chances this week and I think I'm finally confident enough to say that I reckon we'll win and win well.

A combination of a few things has led me to this conclusion:
- Apart from the WC game they have been very good for a sustained period now.
- IMO the WC game is misleading, Coasters are a better side than most people credit and I reckon they'll finish the season pretty strongly.
- Adelaide players copped a pasting from all quarters after the WC game and their response last week was absolutely ruthless. I think this attitude will continue now.
- They know they have been let out of jail by the way the results fell last week. Sanderson would be hammering that into them.

Defences of both teams weak, attacks of both teams strong. Will come down to contested ball, disposal efficiency going forward, and conversion in front of the sticks. This will be a ripper.

Adelaide by 30 points.
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Post by Scrunch on Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:21 pm

Midfield will decide the Adelaide v Richmond game. Whomever is more damaging out of Dangerfield, Sloane, Douglas, etc vs Cotchin, Martin, Deledio etc
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Post by Paul on Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:18 pm

Scrunch wrote:Power 40+, Schultz with a bag.

Then ... Flip a coin ... TAILS!! Richmond by 8 points

Same but make it 9 points for Richmond.
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Post by Gingernuts on Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:25 pm

Good calls fellas. Same **** different week. Lost 5 at home this year, 6 if you include the first showdown. Hurts that does, hurts a lot.
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Post by bayman on Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:31 pm

bayman wrote:Port & Richmond in close games

finally got them both right
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Post by the prowler on Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:55 pm

Go to the top of the class Very Happy 
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Post by bayman on Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:12 am

the prowler wrote:Go to the top of the class Very Happy 

1 out of 21 isn't top of the class  Very Happy 
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Post by the prowler on Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:27 am

I gets you out of the dunces corner
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Post by Lee on Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:44 pm

GN, the problem is that Richmond deserved to win.

Adelaide have a few very soft players, Mackay being the most obvious, but Jenkins also and on last night, Thompson (L).

Apart from that, they have some players who make really dumb decisions. Handballing blindly towards the opposition goal is becoming a habit and their defensive stoppage work is dumb at times.

They have several very good players. Put Talia at the top of that list.

I'd also like to see Dangerfield realise his left foot skills aten't as good as he thinks. His contest skills and aggression are the standard for the others.

Their game preparation isn't good enough.

They are mentally weak.
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Post by Paul on Sun Aug 17, 2014 2:12 pm

And the coach had them all convinced by the end of the week, they couldn't win. Back to the mental side of things.
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Post by bayman on Sun Aug 17, 2014 7:50 pm

from the above two posts....

Lee, i don't think it is they have ''soft players'' but more so 'pretty footballers' but  not many if any players that have that bit of dirt/mongrel in them

Paul, you are probably correct
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Post by Lee on Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:29 pm

Bayman, if there's a ball to be contested and one player goes for the ball and the other outs out one hand, I call that soft.
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Post by Booney on Mon Aug 18, 2014 9:03 am

Port toughed it out in poor conditions, Adelaide met an opponent with more momentum and more importantly more belief than them. Will wrap it up more later.
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Post by Gingernuts on Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:04 am

Well, what a flat game that was.

It really was the same old stuff that we’ve seen all year over again. When you’re watching it live at the ground you can see the fellas know it and are trying to change it, but unfortunately they are still finding themselves all at sea.

It’s so frustrating to watch, but I feel for them because actually living it must be torture. For example late in the last when we were a goal in front and Sauce (who had been one of the few who had been superb all game) to a huge contested mark on half back, only to wheel around and slot it straight down the throat of a Richmond bloke on our half forward line. That would give me nightmares all week if that was me.

After the game my brother and I just sat in our seats muttering quietly to ourselves while the Richmond players carried on like they’d won the flag, and the supporters likewise. Simmering away, hurting like a bitch after another loss at home.

We came to the general conclusion that a) they are still kids with limited experience & b) they just haven’t played enough footy together yet to deal confidently with these pressure situations when they arise.

Look at the games records of the team that took the field on the weekend. I’ve colour coded them into 3 categories, with green being players who should be able to perform, amber for borderline, and red for those who you could be susceptible to panic under pressure.

B, Luke Thompson (19), Daniel Talia (74), Matthew Jaensch (65)  
HB, Ricky Henderson (62), Sam Shaw (22), Brodie Smith (74)
C, David Mackay (123), Richard Douglas (153), Mitch Grigg (14)  
HF, Rory Sloane (98), Josh Jenkins (46), Eddie Betts (204)  
F, Matthew Wright (77), Taylor Walker (82), James Podsiadly (102)  
Fol, Sam Jacobs (102), Patrick Dangerfield (129), Brad Crouch (23)  
I/C, Luke Brown (44), Jarryd Lyons (20), Brodie Martin (33), Charlie Cameron (6)

For mine you can draw a direct connect between a player’s experience and their ability to perform under pressure/play at a consistent level. Yes there is the odd one who comes straight in with the right temperament from day one (Talia or Sloane for example), but your standard player needs upwards of 100 games to be truly comfortable out there when the game is on the line.

For all we’ve talked about all year, this is the number 1 issue for Adelaide. Too many players sub 50 and sub 100 games, too many at the fringe in the same boat, and too many experienced players who have left (Bock, Tippett, Vince) or whose careers have headed south too quickly (Porps, Reilly, Truck and to a lesser extend Thompson).

Unfortunately this is also the hardest to fix, because there’s nothing you can do to fix things immediately, all the best solutions are going to take time and patience:
- Keep exposing them to games and pressure situations
- Keep playing the same kids together as much as possible so they get to know each other’s games and capabilities
- Wait for the fringe players to start staking legitimate claims for permanent spots in the team
- Use your first and second round picks to zero in on players who might have the right temperament and provide a bit of depth
- Keep pumping pre-seasons into their legs

Obviously there’s a lot of other things that Adelaide need work on off and off the field besides this, but in all honestly most of it is just about biding time while these kids build up their ‘experience banks’.
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Post by Booney on Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:34 am

The worst statistic I hear get thrown up on a regular basis is "We are the second/third/fourth youngest list".

GWS and Gold Coast aside, this is a load of bollocks IMO. Kids come into this system better prepared than ever, some players like Ollie Wines, Jaeger O'Meara, Brad Crouch etc come in and play at almost elite level inside 50 games. Simply using the "we're the **th youngest list" is, IMO, a cop out.

Question Ginge, do you think the talk from Sando during the week regarding the Brisbane heat, the short turn around etc etc played in the players minds late in the game, did they look tired/flat at the ground?
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Post by Booney on Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:34 am

Talia, Smith, Sloane and Walker all amber, can you expand upon that?
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Post by Scrunch on Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:37 am

Lee wrote:GN, the problem is that Richmond deserved to win.

Adelaide have a few very soft players, Mackay being the most obvious, but Jenkins also and on last night, Thompson (L).

Apart from that, they have some players who make really dumb decisions. Handballing blindly towards the opposition goal is becoming a habit and their defensive stoppage work is dumb at times.

They have several very good players.  Put Talia at the top of that list.

I'd also like to see Dangerfield realise his left foot skills aten't as good as he thinks.  His contest skills and aggression are the standard for the others.

Their game preparation isn't good enough.

They are mentally weak.

I didn't see the game, but this post comes as no surprise. That's been the Crows in nearly all of their losses this season, and even at times in some of their wins.
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Post by Gingernuts on Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:52 am

Booney wrote:The worst statistic I hear get thrown up on a regular basis is "We are the second/third/fourth youngest list".

GWS and Gold Coast aside, this is a load of bollocks IMO. Kids come into this system better prepared than ever, some players like Ollie Wines, Jaeger O'Meara, Brad Crouch etc come in and play at almost elite level inside 50 games. Simply using the "we're the **th youngest list" is, IMO, a cop out.

Personally I'm not throwing it up as an excuse - I'm not accepting their inconsistency, just explaining it, there's a difference. At no point do I find Saturday's result acceptable - I find it understandable, but not acceptable. They are good enough to make the bottom half of the top 8 comfortably, so are underachieving.

Generally first rounders like the ones you mentioned can come in and play at elite level almost straight away - how many first rounders have we had in the last two years again? One, and we had to trade a 150+ game club champion to get it. The Club obviously has themselves to blame for this. Most of our kids have come via the 3rd or 4th rounds, or via the rookie list. They may have the ability, but they take more time.

Booney wrote:Question Ginge, do you think the talk from Sando during the week regarding the Brisbane heat, the short turn around etc etc played in the players minds late in the game, did they look tired/flat at the ground?

No. They looked like a team of individuals who didn't want to be the one who stuffed it up.

Any ideas how do you change that Booney? Your mob are looking for the same answers at present IMO, only difference is their early form is saving them from harder scrutiny. It's a confidence game this one, and when you are Hawthorn or Sydney with a core of 10 - 15 blokes on 150+ games with a smattering of talented youngsters, you are going to find it a lot easier to grab the wins than when it's the other way around.
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Post by Gingernuts on Mon Aug 18, 2014 11:01 am

Booney wrote:Talia, Smith, Sloane and Walker all amber, can you expand upon that?

Colour coding purely done to indicate how experienced they are by game count, + 100 being green and the point that most would consider the 'average' player should feel comfortable at be performing consistently at AFL level. Obviously there are players that fall either side of that rule of thumb based on their ability.

The exercise is more about the net result rather than the individuals, the point being that particularly in those last 5 - 8 players picked, Adelaide have serious problems with depth/experience.
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