Showdown 2014 v2

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Post by Gingernuts on Mon Jun 23, 2014 11:30 am

Well, better kick off the discussion.

As an Adelaide fan I'm trying to get excited about this weeks game, but I'm not optimistic at all to be honest.

We all know that anything can happen in Showdowns, but Port Adelaide are in red hot form and Adelaide are anything but.

I do hope Adelaide show some fight, but I will be going along expecting a similar result to the first showdown of the year unfortunately.

Discuss away....
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Post by Paul on Mon Jun 23, 2014 11:58 am

Gingernuts wrote:but I will be going along expecting a similar result to the first showdown of the year unfortunately.

Double it.
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Post by Gingernuts on Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:49 pm

sapaul wrote:
Gingernuts wrote:but I will be going along expecting a similar result to the first showdown of the year unfortunately.

Double it.

Nup, won't happen. It'll be okay sapaul, it'll be ooookkkayyy.....

....(quick someone get around to his joint and hide all the sharp objects)

 Wink 
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Post by bayman on Mon Jun 23, 2014 6:16 pm

Adelaide to be in front by 11 points at quarter time & get beaten by 49 points
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Post by Booney on Tue Jun 24, 2014 8:28 am

bayman wrote:Adelaide to be in front by 11 points at quarter time & get beaten by 49 points

*SOLD*...to the man at the trotto's.
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Post by Gingernuts on Tue Jun 24, 2014 8:59 am

bayman wrote:Adelaide to be in front by 11 points at quarter time & get beaten by 49 points

I think you are around the mark there bayman, that's pretty much what I'm picturing in my head.
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Post by Gingernuts on Tue Jun 24, 2014 9:41 am

Thought I'd have a quick crack at a team this morning:

B: Talia – Rutten – Brown
HB: Henderson – Otten – Smith
C: Kerridge – Thompson – B Crouch
HF: Wright – Jenkins – Lynch
F: Betts – Walker – Dangerfield
FOLL: Jacobs – Sloane – Douglas
I/C: Reilly – M Crouch – Lyons – Jaensch

IN: B Crouch, M Crouch, Lynch, Henderson

OUT: Podsiadly, Mackay (concussion), Martin, Laird

The only selection I think I might be out on is M Crouch coming back in, given they only dropped him last week. I think playing the Crouch boys together for the first time would give them both some extra incentive in a big game, and could be worth the gamble though IMO.
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Post by Paul on Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:02 pm

Lynch is a certainty, let's just hope he can string more than a few games together  Rolling Eyes 
Didn't Henderson get injured again on the weekend? Not sure if serious or not, just thought I heard/seen it.

We won't win a quarter, Port to win by 110.
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Post by Paul on Wed Jun 25, 2014 11:27 am

Random stat: neither the Crows nor Port have won a premiership without a player kicking 7 goals in a Showdown during the year. Tony Modra (1997) & Peter Vardy (1998) each bagged 7 in Showdowns in our flag years & Warren Tredrea did the same for Port in 2004
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Post by Gingernuts on Wed Jun 25, 2014 11:37 am

Yea saw that on Facebook this morning. Probably a stat more interesting for Port fans than us paulos, even if Tex kicks 15 on the weekend Adelaide have don't a hope in hell of winning the flag.  Laughing 
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Post by Booney on Wed Jun 25, 2014 12:47 pm

That is ripping news. Jay Schulz bagged 8 last week.
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Post by Gingernuts on Wed Jun 25, 2014 1:11 pm

He'll get Talia this week though. One of the few Adelaide players that has been consistent in shutting down his opponent all year. Will be an interesting battle that one.
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Post by Paul on Wed Jun 25, 2014 1:43 pm

More worried about Westhoff than Schulz if I'm honest.

Even Wingard.
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Post by Gingernuts on Wed Jun 25, 2014 1:46 pm

sapaul wrote:More worried about Westhoff than Schulz if I'm honest.

Even Wingard.

Westhoff. Gees I hate that bloke. Even when he was **** you could guarantee that he would play 2 awesome games a year. Now he's good consistently, so look out. 100% agree that he is a major concern for Adelaide this weekend.
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Post by Scrunch on Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:23 pm

sapaul wrote:Random stat: neither the Crows nor Port have won a premiership without a player kicking 7 goals in a Showdown during the year. Tony Modra (1997) & Peter Vardy (1998) each bagged 7 in Showdowns in our flag years & Warren Tredrea did the same for Port in 2004

Also in each of the Crows and Power premiership years each club lost a Showdown
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Post by Gingernuts on Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:35 pm

Scrunch wrote:
sapaul wrote:Random stat: neither the Crows nor Port have won a premiership without a player kicking 7 goals in a Showdown during the year. Tony Modra (1997) & Peter Vardy (1998) each bagged 7 in Showdowns in our flag years & Warren Tredrea did the same for Port in 2004

Also in each of the Crows and Power premiership years each club lost a Showdown

Now THERE is a stat we should all take notice of. Chalk it up then!  Laughing 
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Post by Booney on Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:55 pm

Gingernuts wrote:
Scrunch wrote:
sapaul wrote:Random stat: neither the Crows nor Port have won a premiership without a player kicking 7 goals in a Showdown during the year. Tony Modra (1997) & Peter Vardy (1998) each bagged 7 in Showdowns in our flag years & Warren Tredrea did the same for Port in 2004

Also in each of the Crows and Power premiership years each club lost a Showdown

Now THERE is a stat we should all take notice of. Chalk it up then!  Laughing 

Schulz kicks 7 on Sunday and you beat us, deal?  Cool 
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Post by Gingernuts on Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:57 pm

Deal.

So that mean's you'll definitely win the......HANG ON!

 Laughing 
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Post by Scrunch on Wed Jun 25, 2014 3:04 pm

Gingernuts wrote:
Scrunch wrote:
sapaul wrote:Random stat: neither the Crows nor Port have won a premiership without a player kicking 7 goals in a Showdown during the year. Tony Modra (1997) & Peter Vardy (1998) each bagged 7 in Showdowns in our flag years & Warren Tredrea did the same for Port in 2004

Also in each of the Crows and Power premiership years each club lost a Showdown

Now THERE is a stat we should all take notice of. Chalk it up then!  Laughing 

That was just for you Ginger
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Post by Paul on Wed Jun 25, 2014 3:38 pm

Gingernuts wrote:Deal.

So that mean's you'll definitely win the......HANG ON!

 Laughing 

x 2 but not overly phased if Port win the flag.

Hawthorn - eff them, won enough lately
Sydney - deserve nothing
Fremantle - boring
Geelong & Collingwood - meh

Not gonna come out of those 6.
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Post by Gingernuts on Wed Jun 25, 2014 4:48 pm

sapaul wrote:
Gingernuts wrote:Deal.

So that mean's you'll definitely win the......HANG ON!

 Laughing 

x 2 but not overly phased if Port win the flag.

Hawthorn - eff them, won enough lately
Sydney - deserve nothing
Fremantle - boring
Geelong & Collingwood - meh

Not gonna come out of those 6.

I actually agree with you there mate. I would probably pick Port as a preference out of that lot myself.
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Post by Ben W on Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:04 am

I think people write off the Crows at their peril, watching the AFC in recent weeks I get the sense that they are not far away from playing some very good football and I think that they will come up well for the Showdown this week and surprise many in the media and on here! - Crows by 42pts for mine.
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Post by Gingernuts on Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:36 am

Ben W wrote:I think people write off the Crows at their peril, watching the AFC in recent weeks I get the sense that they are not far away from playing some very good football and I think that they will come up well for the Showdown this week and surprise many in the media and on here! - Crows by 42pts for mine.

 Shocked 

Love your work Ben W!

I do think Adelaide are better than their ladder position and the closer we get the Sunday the more I'm feeling quietly confident that we could cause an upset.

Teams:

ADELAIDE (three to be omitted)
B Andy Otten, Daniel Talia, Luke Brown
HB Brent Reilly, Brodie Smith, Matthew Jaensch
C David Mackay, Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane
HF Eddie Betts, James Podsiadly, Tom Lynch
F Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Matthew Wright
FOLL Sam Jacobs, Scott Thompson, Richard Douglas
I/C Brad Crouch, Luke Thompson, Sam Kerridge, Rory Laird, Jarryd Lyons, Brodie Martin, Jason Porplyzia
IN Tom Lynch, Brad Crouch, Luke Thompson, Jason Porplyzia
OUT Ben Rutten (Rested)

PORT ADELAIDE (three to be omitted)
B Jack Hombsch, Alipate Carlile, Tom Jonas
HB Matthew Broadbent, Jackson Trengove, Jasper Pittard
C Angus Monfries, Travis Boak, Kane Cornes
HF Jared Polec, Justin Westhoff, Matt White
F Robbie Gray, Jay Schulz, Chad Wingard
FOLL Matthew Lobbe, Ollie Wines, Brad Ebert
I/C Sam Gray, Kane Mitchell, Aaron Young, Thomas Logan, Hamish Hartlett, Jarman Impey, Dom Cassisi
IN Hamish Hartlett, Jarman Impey, Dom Cassisi


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Post by Scrunch on Fri Jun 27, 2014 11:08 am

Think the Crows will get to (or close to) a winning position, but Port will run over them. It's not just their fitness anymore, they simply have the required belief now I think. I do agree the Crows look more capable of producing than 10 weeks ago, but don't think they enough class to get over Port.
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Post by Booney on Fri Jun 27, 2014 11:32 am

Line by line :


Walker has been in good nick since his return, I expect Carlile to go to Walker. Carlile is in career best, perhaps even AA, form.

Jenkins has been up and down, brilliant at times not sire he is even out there in others. Trengove will be his shadow all day with Jacko happily pinch hitting in the ruck over recent weeks, Jenkins will be in for a tough day.

Podsiadly has been, like Jenkins, in and out of games, I expect the close checking Hombsch to go to Pods. This will be an interesting match up.

The versatile and mobile Lynch will get the, well, versatile and mobile Tom Jonas.

Hombsch and Jonas have the ability to play tall and small and this week they both get a sound test with Podsiadly and Lynch both covering plenty of ground and being dangerous in the air.

Eddie Betts will have Jarman Impey back, fresh after a week off, and this will be another interesting battle. Impey showed in the last few weeks that he’s comfortable enough with his spot to take the game on and leave his man. This could be dangerous against Mr. Betts. A good match up.

Matt Wright will probably play the defensive forward role trying to make either Polec, Broadbent or Harlett accountable across half back.

Port’s defence is miserly, Adelaides forward half hit and miss.

Port get the edge in this area. Just.

Now we get into the action station, the midfield.

There’s every likely hood a fire will start in the centre this week as two giant Redheads go at each other.   lol! Hi Ginge!!  Very Happy  Lobbe and Jacobs will exchange serious amounts of SPF30+ as they battle each other with the odd chop out from Trengove and Jenkins. Lobbe is in career best form, he’s carried Ports ruck duties since mid-2013 and Jacobs is, in 2014, slowly starting to rediscover some of his best form shown back in 2012. Jacobs looked to be “hamstrung” last year and not moving well at all, he is starting to look more mobile this year.

One thing Lobbe is doing, is hitting the scoreboard, he’s kicked 6 goals this year to Jacobs’ 1.  Lobbe is looking very mobile and will try to jump over Jacobs, who will prefer to use his bulk to hold Lobbe out. Tough one to call – I’ll say this one will have little impact on the game.

The midfield match ups :

As I’ve said previously, outside of the Cornes job Port don’t tag many opposition players. The likes of Ebert, Wines and Polec “mind” a player and I see this weeks match ups as such.

Thompson/Wines, Dangerfield/Ebert, Kerridge/Boak, Sloane/Cornes, Douglas/Hartlett with the likes of McKay, Crouch, Lyons and Laird taking on White, Monfries, Gray and Wingard. This is where Port gets the advantage in the midfield and why we’ve been able to outrun sides most of the year.

Port’s midfield runs deep, very deep. Being able to bring the super quick Matt White, the simply brilliant Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard out of the forward half to run in the midfield for short bursts really gives Port an edge here.

A banged up Dangerfield ( admirable by the guy to keep fronting up ) really looks like he needs a week or two off and it seems his polish has gone missing in the last few weeks on the back of his sore spots. Still a massive “danger” but perhaps more controllable in his current physical condition. Sloane and Douglas like playing in the Showdowns and will need to be kept out of the scoring zone. Both can damage there.

Port get the nod in the midfield – I’d say comfortably.

We get now to the danger zone for Adelaide, the second best forward half in the competition. And I’ll note early, an interesting selection to leave out Truck Rutten. When the ball will spend time in the back half for Adelaide they need someone with a cool head and guiding voice. Rutten is, or was, the man for mine. I would have left our Podsiadly and used Otten forward and brought in Luke Thompson to play in the back half on Westhoff. I guess Sando knows what he’s doing... Showdown 2014 v2 3349184707 

The likely match ups are Talia/Westhoff, Otten/Schulz and then the headaches start for Adelaide. Monfries will go to Smith to try and make his accountable ( if Cornes doesn’t go to him ) and then Adelaide need to make sure Jaensch, Brown, Reilly and Laird keep Polec, Gray, White and Wingard off the score board.

Most small forward lines ( which Port’s is ) usually roam around from wing to goal square and Adelaide’s smalls down back better be ready to run. Not only do White, Gray, Wingard and Monfries roam around the forward 50 the likes of Ebert, Boak, Polec and Harlett ( who can both score from outside 50 ) hit the score board ( 37 goals from this 4 this year ) and this is the reason Port kick 15-16+ goals each week.

Port get the edge here. I think comfortably in the small man department, very hard for anyone to beat Talia at the moment so the big men I’d give Adelaide the edge. Port. Just.

For Adelaide to win I think Walker will need 5+, Jenkins 3+ and the likes of Podsiadly and Betts 2+ while the midfield throw a couple more in.

Challenging weather conditions may meet the players, the 19th man and the Port Adelaide faithful......lets just hope its another one for the ages.

Port Adelaide – 38 points.
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